Picks and Betting Guide for Mariners vs Rangers – Friday, May 02, 2025

Seattle Mariners

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Texas Rangers

As the Texas Rangers host the Seattle Mariners on May 2, 2025, both teams come off differing results from their previous games. The Rangers were shut out 3-0, while the Mariners enjoyed a convincing 9-3 victory, showcasing their offensive firepower. This matchup is particularly intriguing in the American League West, as the Rangers sit at 16-16 and the Mariners are on a roll at 18-12.

Tonight’s starting pitchers present a stark contrast in recent performance. Jack Leiter, who is projected to start for the Rangers, has had an excellent season with a 2-0 record and a remarkable ERA of 2.03. However, despite his ERA, advanced metrics rank him as the 155th best starter in MLB, indicating he may have benefited from good fortune. His last outing was less than stellar, as he only managed three innings with two earned runs. Leiter’s high walk rate of 9.6% could be problematic against a Mariners lineup that leads MLB in drawing walks.

On the other side, Bryan Woo, slated to pitch for Seattle, has been exceptional, with a 3-1 record and a solid 3.09 ERA. He ranks as the 26th best starting pitcher, and his ability to minimize walks (5.5%) offers a distinct advantage against a Rangers offense that ranks 27th overall.

Given the projections, the Mariners are favored with an implied team total of 4.35 runs compared to the Rangers’ average of 4.15. However, considering the Rangers are at home and will look to bounce back after a rough game, they could surprise the Mariners in what promises to be a closely contested matchup. The Game Total is currently set at a moderate 8.5 runs, indicating a potentially tight game.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Bryan Woo – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-190/+145)
  Recording 19.2 outs per GS this year on average, Bryan Woo places him the 100th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Rowdy Tellez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Rowdy Tellez has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 96.7-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal 93.8-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The 11.5% Barrel% of the Seattle Mariners makes them the #2 squad in the game this year by this standard.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Jack Leiter – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have 6 batters in the projected offense that will hold the platoon advantage against Jack Leiter in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Joc Pederson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Joc Pederson’s true offensive ability to be a .341, providing some evidence that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .159 deviation between that figure and his actual .182 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• Josh Jung – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Josh Jung hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (41% — 99th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB’s 7th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 26 games (+9.15 Units / 31% ROI)
• Seattle Mariners – Moneyline (-130)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 18 games (+9.15 Units / 37% ROI)
• Leody Taveras – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+115/-150)
  Leody Taveras has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+8.30 Units / 54% ROI)