Picks and Betting Guide for Guardians vs Nationals – Wednesday, May 07, 2025

Cleveland Guardians

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Washington Nationals

As the Washington Nationals gear up to face the Cleveland Guardians on May 7, 2025, they find themselves looking to bounce back after a disappointing 9-1 loss just yesterday. The Nationals currently sit at 17-20, struggling to find their footing this season, while the Guardians are having a strong year at 21-15, showcasing their competitive edge in this interleague matchup.

On the mound for the Nationals, Mike Soroka is projected to take the hill. Although he is statistically ranked as the 85th best starting pitcher in MLB, which suggests he is above average, his performance this season has been less than stellar with an ERA of 7.20. Soroka’s last outing saw him pitch 5 innings, allowing 4 earned runs. He projects to average 5.0 innings today but is expected to give up around 2.4 earned runs, which is average, while also allowing a concerning 4.4 hits.

In contrast, Logan Allen will start for the Guardians. While his overall ranking is not favorable, his recent performance has been solid, evidenced by a strong outing on May 2, where he pitched 6 innings with just 2 earned runs. Allen’s ERA stands at 4.02, but projections indicate he might regress, allowing an average of 2.9 earned runs today.

The Nationals’ offense ranks as the 16th best in MLB, which is average, while the Guardians’ offense is rated 18th overall but struggles significantly with a batting average of just .224. This matchup could hinge on how well the Nationals capitalize on their home advantage at Nationals Park, especially considering their high implied team total of 4.39 runs for the game.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Logan Allen – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Logan Allen’s higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this year (57.3% vs. 51.7% last year) should work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Daniel Schneemann – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Daniel Schneemann has been lucky this year, posting a .405 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .304 — a .101 difference.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Jose Ramirez pulls many of his flyballs (41.4% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 10th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Mike Soroka – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Among all starting pitchers, Mike Soroka’s fastball spin rate of 2530.7 rpm ranks in the 95th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Keibert Ruiz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+175)
  Keibert Ruiz has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (87% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Washington Nationals (20.8 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the least strikeout-heavy group of batters of all teams on the slate.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Run Line +1.5 (-160)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 8 of their last 12 games at home (+3.55 Units / 25% ROI)
• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-110)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 34 games (+6.35 Units / 16% ROI)
• Steven Kwan – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+105/-135)
  Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 25 away games (+5.45 Units / 21% ROI)