Phillies vs White Sox Value Bets and Betting Line – 7/29/2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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Chicago White Sox

As the Chicago White Sox prepare to face off against the Philadelphia Phillies on July 29, 2025, the stakes are clear. The White Sox, struggling with a record of 39-68, are not in contention for a playoff spot, while the Phillies sit at a solid 60-46, showcasing a strong season. The teams met yesterday, with the White Sox pulling off a surprising 6-2 victory, a much-needed boost after a tough stretch.

On the mound, the White Sox will send out Jonathan Cannon, who has had a rough year with a 4-7 record and an average ERA of 4.48. Cannon’s recent performance has been shaky; he was hit hard in his last start, allowing 5 earned runs over just 4 innings. He projects to pitch around 5.0 innings and is expected to struggle, with projections indicating he could allow approximately 3.3 earned runs and 5.7 hits today.

Conversely, the Phillies will counter with Jesus Luzardo, who has been a bright spot in their rotation. With an 8-5 record and an ERA of 4.58, Luzardo ranks as the 38th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced projections. Despite a recent outing where he also struggled, allowing 6 earned runs, his underlying metrics suggest he has been unlucky this season. Luzardo is projected to pitch 5.5 innings, allowing about 2.7 earned runs and striking out 6.3 batters on average, which could bode well against a struggling White Sox offense.

Offensively, the White Sox rank 29th in MLB, which is concerning given their matchup against a Phillies team that boasts the 7th best offense in the league. With an implied team total of 3.93 runs for the White Sox and a high total of 5.07 runs for the Phillies, the projections favor Philadelphia significantly. As the game unfolds, it will be interesting to see if the White Sox can build on their recent success or if the Phillies will assert their dominance.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Jesus Luzardo – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  Jesus Luzardo has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording 7.3 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Trea Turner – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+155/-200)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trea Turner as the 10th-best hitter in Major League Baseball when assessing his batting average ability.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
• The Philadelphia Phillies have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kyle Schwarber, Brandon Marsh, Otto Kemp).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Jonathan Cannon – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Jonathan Cannon has utilized his cut-fastball 5.3% more often this season (25.1%) than he did last year (19.8%).
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Kyle Teel – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-110/-120)
  Kyle Teel is penciled in 9th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 81% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Chicago White Sox – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox’ bullpen ranks as the worst among all the teams in the game.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+145)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 32 of their last 81 games (+11.65 Units / 14% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 43 of their last 69 games (+13.21 Units / 16% ROI)
• Edgar Quero – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-125/-105)
  Edgar Quero has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.95 Units / 52% ROI)