Phillies vs Cubs Expert Picks and Betting Guide – 4/26/2025

Philadelphia Phillies

@

Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs and the Philadelphia Phillies gear up for their matchup on April 26, 2025, at Wrigley Field, both teams come off notable results from their previous game. The Cubs celebrated a decisive 4-0 shutout victory over the Phillies just a day prior, while the Phillies faced the same fate, struggling to find a rhythm against their opponents.

In the current standings, the Cubs hold a strong record of 17-10, showcasing their prowess, especially with their offense ranked 1st in MLB, which includes leading rankings in both team batting average and stolen bases. This potent offense will face a tougher challenge against the Phillies’ pitching ace, Jesus Luzardo, who boasts an impressive 2.08 ERA and a favorable 5-0 record this season. However, Luzardo’s projections suggest he may regress slightly, given his elevated xFIP of 2.80, hinting at a possible vulnerability.

On the other side, the Cubs project to start Ben Brown, who, despite a solid showing in his first few starts, is recognized for his high walk rate of 12.4%, which could play into the hands of the Phillies’ patient hitters. The Phillies rank 3rd in MLB for drawing walks, posing a threat if Brown struggles with his control.

With both teams looking to establish their offensive rhythm after a mixed bag in their prior game, expectations are set for a tightly contested battle. The low Game Total of 7.0 runs reflects the perceived strength of both pitchers, although the Cubs’ lineup, having performed so well this season, certainly holds the edge in this pairing. The projections suggest a potential for the Cubs to overcome their low implied team total of 3.50 runs, as their offensive capabilities may shine through against Brown’s control issues.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
  Jesus Luzardo is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.9% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #22 HR venue among all parks in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Johan Rojas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Extreme groundball bats like Johan Rojas generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Ben Brown.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-115)
  The Philadelphia Phillies projected batting order profiles as the 5th-strongest of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Ben Brown – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Ben Brown has relied on his fastball a lot since the start of last season, though: 62.9% of the time, ranking in the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Justin Turner – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  Justin Turner has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 5.9% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the past two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The 9.7% Barrel% of the Chicago Cubs grades them out as the #10 club in baseball this year by this stat.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-155)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 20 games (+11.95 Units / 52% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 7 away games (+3.00 Units / 37% ROI)
• Nick Castellanos – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+155/-205)
  Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.05 Units / 41% ROI)