Phillies vs Cubs Best Bets and Expert Picks – Sunday April 27, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs host the Philadelphia Phillies at Wrigley Field on April 27, 2025, in a critical National League matchup. Both teams took the field yesterday, with the Cubs suffering a 10-4 defeat, while the Phillies celebrated a decisive win by the same score. This game marks the third of the series, and both teams are looking to capitalize on their current form to gain an edge in the highly competitive NL.

The Cubs, sporting a 17-11 record, have been performing exceptionally well this season, highlighted by their 2nd-best offense in MLB. They rank 2nd in team batting average and have displayed power with 38 home runs this season. However, they face Aaron Nola, a right-handed pitcher for the Phillies, who, despite a disappointing 0-5 record, has shown signs of potential with a 3.36 xFIP that suggests he may be due for a turnaround.

Jameson Taillon, projected to pitch for the Cubs, has been average thus far with a 1-1 record and a 4.73 ERA. His last outing was solid, going 5 innings with only 1 earned run. Taillon’s control is an asset, as he has a low walk rate of 6.3%, which could play a crucial role against a Phillies offense known for drawing walks.

For the Cubs, the projections favor them with an implied team total of 4.10 runs. Their offensive prowess and Taillon’s ability to limit walks could create a favorable scenario, particularly against a Phillies bullpen ranked 28th in the league. As the Cubs aim to rebound from their last game, they’ll look to leverage their home advantage and capitalize on the Phillies’ pitching struggles.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Aaron Nola – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Aaron Nola’s fastball velocity has decreased 2 mph this year (90.5 mph) below where it was last season (92.5 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Bryce Harper has taken a step back with his Barrel% recently; his 11% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% over the past 7 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (+110)
  The 5th-best projected batting order of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive ability is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
  Jameson Taillon is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.4% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #21 HR venue in Major League Baseball today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Michael Busch – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Michael Busch’s average exit velocity has declined lately; his 89.9-mph seasonal average has fallen to 80.6-mph over the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Chicago Cubs batters as a group place 9th- in the league for power this year when assessing with their 9.6% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 23 games (+8.75 Units / 33% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.60 Units / 24% ROI)
• Alec Bohm – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+105/-135)
  Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.15 Units / 72% ROI)