Padres vs Dodgers Picks and Odds – September 25, 2024

San Diego Padres

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Los Angeles Dodgers

As the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres gear up for another National League West showdown on September 25, 2024, both teams are neck-and-neck in the standings, making this a crucial battle in the division race. The Dodgers, sitting at 93-64, have been having a stellar season, while the Padres, at 91-66, are hot on their tails. This is the second game of their series, adding extra weight to the outcome.

Jack Flaherty will take the mound for the Dodgers, boasting a solid 13-7 record and a commendable 3.10 ERA. Although Flaherty is ranked 57th among starting pitchers, his high-strikeout ability could be tested against the Padres, who rank 1st in least strikeouts in MLB. Meanwhile, Dylan Cease is slated to start for the Padres, with a 14-11 record and a strong 3.42 ERA. Cease, ranked 23rd, faces the daunting task of containing a powerful Dodgers lineup that ranks 3rd in home runs.

Offensively, the Dodgers are the 2nd best in MLB, with Shohei Ohtani leading the charge over the last week, hitting a blistering .615 with five home runs. The Padres, however, boast the top team batting average, ranking 1st in MLB, and have Jackson Merrill as their recent standout performer, hitting .412 over the last seven games.

The bullpens add an intriguing layer to this matchup, with the Padres ranked 1st and the Dodgers 6th in Power Rankings. Despite the Dodgers’ slightly better projected win probability of 55%, this game could go either way, especially with both teams projected to score high runs. With playoff implications on the line, expect a closely fought contest at Dodger Stadium.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Dylan Cease – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150/+120)
  Dylan Cease has utilized his slider 8.2% more often this year (46.8%) than he did last season (38.6%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Jake Cronenworth – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jake Cronenworth has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The San Diego Padres (18.5 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the least strikeout-prone batting order on the slate.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Jack Flaherty – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Jack Flaherty has put up a 13.4% Swinging Strike rate this year, grading out in the 90th percentile.
  Explain: Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.
• Miguel Rojas – Over/Under Total Bases
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Miguel Rojas’s true offensive talent to be a .284, indicating that he has been very fortunate this year given the .044 gap between that mark and his actual .328 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers’ bullpen ranks as the 6th-best among all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 52 of their last 88 games (+16.60 Units / 17% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (+115)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 56 games (+18.05 Units / 21% ROI)
• Luis Arraez – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+175/-230)
  Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 21 games (+9.25 Units / 44% ROI)