Padres vs Dodgers Betting Line and Odds – September 24, 2024

San Diego Padres

@

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres are set to clash in a high-stakes National League West matchup on September 24, 2024, at Dodger Stadium. With the Dodgers holding a 93-63 record and the Padres close behind at 90-66, both teams are having impressive seasons and are vying for playoff positioning. This game marks the first in a crucial series that could have significant implications for the division standings and playoff seeding.

The Dodgers will send Landon Knack to the mound, who has shown flashes of brilliance with a 3.39 ERA this season. However, his 4.19 xFIP suggests he might have been a bit fortunate and could face challenges against a potent Padres lineup. Knack’s 3-4 record and #179 ranking among starting pitchers indicate he’s had a mixed year, and his projections for this game are less than stellar, with an anticipated 4.8 innings and 2.7 earned runs allowed.

On the other side, the Padres will counter with Michael King, whose season has been outstanding. With a 3.04 ERA and a #17 ranking among starters, King has been a cornerstone for the Padres. Although his SIERA of 3.59 suggests some luck, his 12-9 record and 5.1 strikeouts projected for this game highlight his effectiveness.

Offensively, the Dodgers boast the 2nd-best lineup in baseball, especially in power, ranking 2nd in home runs. Meanwhile, the Padres have the top batting average in the league and rank 4th overall offensively. Shohei Ohtani has been red-hot for the Dodgers, hitting .571 with six homers in his last seven games, while Elias Diaz has been a standout for the Padres.

With both teams’ moneylines set at -110, betting markets anticipate a tight contest. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Dodgers a slight edge with a 51% win probability, suggesting they might have the upper hand in this pivotal showdown.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Michael King – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Michael King’s 92.3-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a big 1.2-mph drop off from last season’s 93.5-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Donovan Solano – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+135)
  Donovan Solano has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (69% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The San Diego Padres (18.5 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the least strikeout-heavy batting order of all teams today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
  Landon Knack is an extreme flyball pitcher (39% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #3 HR venue among all parks in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Shohei Ohtani has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 99.1-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 95.5-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers’ bullpen profiles as the 6th-best among all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 56 of their last 93 games (+19.50 Units / 19% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (+100)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 48 of their last 73 games (+16.10 Units / 15% ROI)
• Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (-105/-125)
  Shohei Ohtani has hit the Walks Under in 31 of his last 45 games (+11.55 Units / 18% ROI)