Padres vs Athletics Expert Picks and Betting Tips – Monday April 7, 2025

San Diego Padres

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Athletics

As the San Diego Padres head to Sutter Health Park for a matchup against the Oakland Athletics on April 7, 2025, the stakes are clear. The Padres enter the game with a strong record of 8-2, showcasing their solid start to the season, while the Athletics limp in at 4-6, struggling to find their footing. Yesterday, the Padres narrowly edged out the Athletics with an 8-7 victory, adding to Oakland’s woes.

This game marks the first of the series, and both teams will look to make a statement early. The Athletics are projected to start Luis Severino, who has had a rocky start to the season. Despite a respectable ERA of 3.75, his advanced stats indicate a less favorable outlook, ranking him as the 156th best starting pitcher in MLB. In contrast, Michael King, set to take the mound for the Padres, has performed well early in the season, with an impressive 2.88 xFIP and ranking as the 17th best starter.

Offensively, the Athletics rank 27th in MLB, indicating a serious issue in generating consistent runs. However, they boast power, sitting 7th in the league in home runs. This might present a challenge for King, a high-flyball pitcher, as the Athletics could capitalize on his tendency to allow fly balls. Meanwhile, the Padres’ offense has shown promise, particularly with their 5th rank in team batting average, suggesting they’ll be able to capitalize against Severino.

According to projections, Oakland is expected to struggle, with a low implied team total of just 3.67 runs, while San Diego is projected at a higher 4.33 runs. Given King’s recent form and the Athletics’ overall struggles, bettors might consider leaning towards the Padres on the moneyline in this matchup.

San Diego Padres Insights

• San Diego Padres – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-155)
  Michael King is an extreme flyball pitcher (31.9% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #7 HR venue among all parks today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Manny Machado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Manny Machado’s average exit velocity has fallen off this season; his 92.5-mph average last year has lowered to 88.1-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres’ bullpen ranks as the 4th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Athletics Insights

• Luis Severino – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Luis Severino has utilized his slider 6.4% more often this year (30.6%) than he did last season (24.2%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• JJ Bleday – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  J.J. Bleday is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of San Diego (#2-best of all teams on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Shea Langeliers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Shea Langeliers pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.5% — 95th percentile) and will be challenged by the league’s 6th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Athletics – Moneyline (+130)
  The Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 73 games (+6.50 Units / 8% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (-150)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 70 of their last 114 games (+17.10 Units / 11% ROI)
• Tyler Soderstrom – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+590/-1100)
  Tyler Soderstrom has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games (+8.70 Units / 87% ROI)