Padres vs Astros Match Preview and Winning Probability – Sunday April 20, 2025

San Diego Padres

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Houston Astros

On April 20, 2025, the Houston Astros will host the San Diego Padres at Minute Maid Park for the third game of their series. The Astros are looking to build on their recent victory, having edged out the Padres 3-2 in their last matchup. Currently, the Astros sit at a mediocre 10-10, while the Padres boast a strong 15-6 record, placing them among the top contenders in the league.

The Astros are projected to start Framber Valdez, who ranks as the 12th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, despite a below-average ERA of 4.91 this season. Valdez has shown some signs of bad luck with a 3.20 xFIP, indicating he could improve as the season progresses. He pitched 6.5 innings on average, allowing 2.2 earned runs, but has struggled with hits and walks, projecting 5.8 hits and 1.7 walks today.

Dylan Cease, the Padres’ starter, is ranked 32nd among MLB pitchers and has had a rough start with a 6.64 ERA. However, his 3.42 xFIP suggests he might turn things around soon. Cease projects to pitch 5.7 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs, with a decent strikeout rate of 6.3 batters.

Offensively, the Astros rank 24th in MLB, struggling to find consistency at the plate. In contrast, the Padres are 4th in MLB, highlighted by their impressive .351 batting average from their best hitter. The Astros’ low implied team total of 3.75 runs reflects their offensive challenges, while the Padres also face a similar projection. With both teams looking to capitalize on pitching matchups, this game promises to be a closely contested affair.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Dylan Cease – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Dylan Cease has relied on his change-up 7.5% more often this year (8.4%) than he did last season (0.9%).
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Fernando Tatis Jr. has made significant improvements with his Barrel%, improving his 14.6% rate last year to 20.3% this season.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  The San Diego Padres bullpen ranks as the 6th-best in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Houston Astros Insights

• Houston Astros – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
  Framber Valdez was rolling in his previous game started and allowed 0 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)
  Jose Altuve’s average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 86.5-mph average last year has fallen off to 84.5-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Isaac Paredes pulls many of his flyballs (46.9% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• San Diego Padres – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-145)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.95 Units / 37% ROI)
• Yuli Gurriel – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Yuli Gurriel has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+7.80 Units / 33% ROI)