Orioles vs Twins Betting Guide – 5/08/25

Baltimore Orioles

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Minnesota Twins

As the Minnesota Twins prepare to host the Baltimore Orioles on May 8, 2025, both teams find themselves struggling this season. The Twins sit at 17-20, showcasing an underwhelming performance, while the Orioles are even worse at 13-22, marking their season as quite dismal. In their most recent matchup, the Twins secured a victory, but overall, both squads have had their fair share of challenges.

Starting for Minnesota is Joe Ryan, who ranks as the 18th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, a notable achievement among approximately 350 pitchers. Ryan has pitched in seven games this season, boasting a solid 2.93 ERA and an average projection of 5.7 innings with just 2.4 earned runs allowed today. His ability to generate strikeouts—averaging 6.7 per game—will be crucial against the Orioles’ lineup, which has struggled significantly this season.

Dean Kremer, projected to start for Baltimore, counters with a less favorable record and performance. Kremer’s 5.73 ERA puts him among the lower ranks of MLB pitchers, and while his xFIP suggests he might improve, the numbers still indicate a tough day ahead. He projects to allow 2.9 earned runs and 5.5 hits on average, further stacking the odds against the Orioles.

While the Twins’ offense has not been impressive—ranking 20th in MLB—their recent form, combined with Ryan’s strong pitching, presents a more favorable scenario than the Orioles’ underperforming lineup. With the Game Total set at 8.0 runs, which is average, and the Twins favored with a moneyline of -155, betting trends suggest they might end up taking the series with a solid performance today.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Dean Kremer – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Dean Kremer’s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this year (58.6% compared to 52.9% last year) figures to work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  The Minnesota Twins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Cedric Mullins has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The Baltimore Orioles have been the 3rd-unluckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-160)
  Joe Ryan’s 92.4-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a sizeable 1.6-mph drop off from last year’s 94-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Typically, batters like Byron Buxton who hit a lot of groundballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Dean Kremer.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Minnesota Twins – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Minnesota Twins’ bullpen profiles as the 10th-best out of all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 27 games (+9.45 Units / 32% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 16 away games (+9.85 Units / 54% ROI)
• Jackson Holliday – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+115/-145)
  Jackson Holliday has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.25 Units / 57% ROI)