Orioles vs Twins Betting Guide – 5/08/25

Baltimore Orioles

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Minnesota Twins

The Minnesota Twins will host the Baltimore Orioles on May 8, 2025, in the third game of a series that has already showcased some competitive action. In their last matchup on May 7, the Twins secured a solid 5-2 victory, which speaks to their current upswing, although they still hold a below-average season record of 17-20. Conversely, the Orioles are enduring a tough campaign at 13-22, marking them as one of the worst teams in the league.

Minnesota is projected to start Bailey Ober, who has been a bright spot for the Twins this season. Currently ranked as the 64th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, Ober holds a commendable 4-1 record and a 3.72 ERA. His last outing on May 3 saw him pitch six innings of one-run baseball, further solidifying his status as a key player. In contrast, Dean Kremer will take the mound for Baltimore, having struggled with a 5.73 ERA this season and currently ranked among the worst pitchers in the league.

The matchup is intriguing, especially given the Twins’ offensive struggles. They rank 19th in the league overall, with a particularly poor ranking of 22nd in batting average and 25th in stolen bases. The same can be said for the Orioles, whose offense ranks 22nd overall. However, they excel in home runs, placing 10th in the league, which could provide a glimmer of hope if they can connect against Ober.

The game total is set at an average 8.5 runs, and with the Twins favored at -165, they are expected to score an implied 4.71 runs. Given these factors, all eyes will be on Bailey Ober as he aims to lead the Twins to another victory while facing a struggling Orioles lineup.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Dean Kremer – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Dean Kremer’s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this year (58.6% compared to 52.9% last year) figures to work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Ryan O’Hearn – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  The Minnesota Twins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Ryan O’Hearn stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Today’s version of the Orioles projected offense is a bit watered down, as their .320 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .331 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Baltimore’s worst outfield defense of all teams on the slate today creates a favorable matchup for Byron Buxton, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Minnesota Twins bats collectively grade out 23rd- in MLB for power this year when using their 91.8-mph exit velocity on flyballs.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 27 games (+9.45 Units / 32% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 16 away games (+9.85 Units / 54% ROI)
• Heston Kjerstad – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+160/-210)
  Heston Kjerstad has hit the Runs Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 49% ROI)