Orioles vs Brewers Game Analysis and Winning Probability – Monday, May 19, 2025

Baltimore Orioles

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Milwaukee Brewers

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to face off against the Baltimore Orioles on May 19, 2025, both teams find themselves struggling to find consistency this season. The Brewers, currently holding a 22-25 record, sit in a challenging position, while the Orioles are even worse off at 15-30. Despite their records, both clubs are looking to gain some momentum in this interleague matchup.

In their last outing, the Brewers’ Quinn Priester will take the mound, aiming to build on a season where he has shown flashes of promise despite a modest 1-2 record and a 4.59 ERA. His advanced metrics indicate that he has been somewhat lucky, as evidenced by his 5.39 SIERA, suggesting a potential downturn in performance. Priester’s high walk rate (14.2 BB%) will be tested against an Orioles offense that has been one of the least patient in the league, ranking 4th in fewest walks.

On the other side, Dean Kremer is set to start for the Orioles, and he has had his struggles, posting a 5.36 ERA this year. However, his 4.63 xFIP points to some bad luck, suggesting he could improve moving forward. Kremer’s tendency to generate fly balls may serve him well against a Brewers lineup that ranks 27th in home runs this season.

Offensively, the Brewers find themselves ranked 26th in MLB, while the Orioles are slightly better at 22nd. With both teams lacking firepower, oddsmakers have set the Game Total at an average 8.5 runs, indicating a potentially low-scoring affair. The Brewers are slight favorites, with a moneyline of -115, as they look to leverage their home-field advantage and break out of their recent funk.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Baltimore Orioles – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  In his last GS, Dean Kremer gave up a monstrous 5 earned runs.
  Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• Baltimore Orioles – 2H Moneyline
  The Baltimore Orioles bullpen ranks as the 9th-best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Quinn Priester – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-155/+120)
  Quinn Priester has averaged 14.5 outs per outing this year, checking in at the 22nd percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.75 Units / 53% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 20 away games (+11.85 Units / 52% ROI)
• Dean Kremer – Over/Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (-135/+105)
  Dean Kremer has hit the Walks Allowed Under in 6 of his last 9 away games (+3.60 Units / 31% ROI)