Orioles vs Brewers Game Analysis and Winning Probability – Monday, May 19, 2025

Baltimore Orioles

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Milwaukee Brewers

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to face the Baltimore Orioles on May 19, 2025, both teams find themselves struggling through disappointing seasons. The Brewers sit at 22-25, while the Orioles have an even more troubling record of 15-30. This matchup marks the first game in their series, and both teams are hoping to turn their fortunes around. In their previous games, the Brewers secured a win against the New York Mets with a score of 5-2, while the Orioles fell to the Chicago White Sox, losing 10-4.

On the mound, Quinn Priester is projected to start for the Brewers. Despite a lackluster overall ranking as the 167th best starting pitcher in MLB, Priester has shown flashes of potential. He pitched well in his last start on May 13, allowing just one earned run over five innings. However, his projections indicate he may struggle today, as he’s expected to pitch only 4.7 innings while allowing 2.2 earned runs, with a concerning 14.2% walk rate.

Dean Kremer, on the other hand, is anticipated to start for the Orioles. Although Kremer ranks among the worst pitchers in the league, the projections suggest he might fare better today. He’s expected to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing an average of 2.8 earned runs. Interestingly, Kremer’s xFIP suggests he has seen some bad luck this season, indicating potential for improvement.

Offensively, the Brewers rank 26th in MLB, and their struggles in generating power are evident with only 37 home runs this season, placing them 27th. In contrast, the Orioles sit at 21st overall but hold a more respectable 11th place in home runs. This discrepancy may give Kremer an edge, especially since the Brewers have shown little ability to turn fly balls into homers against a pitcher with a high flyball rate.

Betting markets currently show the Brewers favored at -115, indicating a close matchup. With the Brewers projected to score 4.30 runs against the Orioles’ average of 4.20, it will be interesting to see if they can leverage their home-field advantage to claim victory in this crucial game.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Baltimore Orioles – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  In his last GS, Dean Kremer gave up a monstrous 5 earned runs.
  Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Cedric Mullins is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Milwaukee (#3-best of all teams today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Baltimore Orioles – 2H Moneyline
  The Baltimore Orioles bullpen ranks as the 8th-best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Rob Zastryzny will “start” for Milwaukee Brewers in today’s game but will fill the role of an opener and may not remain in the game more than a couple innings.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Sal Frelick – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+125)
  Sal Frelick is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 79% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• William Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  William Contreras hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.75 Units / 53% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 20 away games (+11.85 Units / 52% ROI)
• Caleb Durbin – Over/Under 0.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-175/+135)
  Caleb Durbin has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.10 Units / 53% ROI)