Odds and Betting Trends for White Sox vs Cubs – 5/16/25

Chicago White Sox

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Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs will host the Chicago White Sox at Wrigley Field on May 16, 2025, in an Interleague matchup that has significant implications for both clubs. The Cubs currently sit at 25-19, enjoying a strong season, while the White Sox are struggling at 14-30, having lost their last game 7-1. This game marks the first of the season between these two rivals, adding a layer of intensity and excitement.

Cade Horton is projected to take the mound for the Cubs. Though his ERA stands at a troubling 6.75, advanced metrics suggest he has been somewhat unlucky this season. His xFIP of 3.16 indicates he may have the potential for better outings ahead. Horton is also facing a White Sox offense that ranks dead last in MLB, a matchup that could favor the Cubs’ starter. On the other hand, Shane Smith will pitch for the White Sox. With a solid ERA of 2.08, his projections indicate he may be due for regression, especially since he has allowed a higher xFIP of 4.17.

Offensively, the Cubs rank 4th in MLB, showcasing a potent lineup that has hit 63 home runs—3rd most in baseball. In contrast, the White Sox offense ranks 30th overall and 30th in batting average, which poses a significant challenge against a well-rounded Cubs team.

Despite the Cubs’ recent loss to the San Diego Padres, their overall offensive prowess and favorable pitching matchup position them as strong favorites in this contest. With a moneyline of -225, the Cubs have an implied team total of 6.86 runs, suggesting they are expected to score heavily against a struggling White Sox squad. Meanwhile, the White Sox have a projected team total of 4.64 runs, reflecting their ongoing difficulties at the plate.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+130)
  Shane Smith has been lucky this year, posting a 2.08 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.33 — a 2.25 difference.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Luis Robert – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Luis Robert Jr. has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 95.5-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal 88.9-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Chicago White Sox have been the 6th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better going forward
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Jon Berti – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Typically, batters like Jon Berti who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Shane Smith.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs’ bullpen ranks as the 4th-worst among all the teams in the game.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-170)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 40 games (+13.65 Units / 25% ROI)
• Over/Under 11.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 22 away games (+7.30 Units / 30% ROI)
• Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Dansby Swanson has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+6.00 Units / 20% ROI)