Odds and Betting Trends for White Sox vs Cubs – 5/16/25

Chicago White Sox

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Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to host the Chicago White Sox for a pivotal Interleague matchup at Wrigley Field on May 16, 2025, there’s more than just city pride on the line. Both teams have faced struggles, with the Cubs currently holding a respectable 25-19 record while the White Sox languish at 14-30. This series opener comes on the heels of disappointing losses for both squads; the Cubs fell to the Cincinnati Reds 3-1 on May 14, while the White Sox suffered a worse fate, losing 7-1 to the Milwaukee Brewers.

Cubs pitcher Cade Horton is projected to take the mound against Shane Smith from the White Sox. Horton has had a rocky start to the season, posting a 1-0 record with a dismal ERA of 6.75 across just one start. However, the projections suggest he may be due for improvement, with a much more favorable xFIP of 3.13. In contrast, Shane Smith has performed well this season with a 2.08 ERA and a solid outing where he went six innings with no earned runs and 7 strikeouts in his last start on May 10.

Offensively, the Cubs’ lineup ranks a strong 4th in MLB, thriving with a powerful batting presence that includes an impressive 63 home runs this season, ranking 3rd overall. The Cubs are poised to exploit Smith’s groundball tendencies, given the White Sox’s lack of power (just 28 home runs, 28th in MLB). With the Cubs operating as strong betting favorites at -230, their implied team total stands at an ambitious 6.87 runs. Meanwhile, the White Sox, as underdogs with a +195 moneyline, aim to improve their anemic offensive rankings as they seek to disrupt the Cubs’ momentum.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline
  Shane Smith has been lucky this year, posting a 2.08 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.32 — a 2.24 difference.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Andrew Vaughn – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Andrew Vaughn has been hot recently, bashing 2 long-balls in the past 7 days.
  Explain: Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.
• The Chicago White Sox have been the 5th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better going forward
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-230)
  Out of all the teams on the slate today, the 3rd-best infield defense is that of the Chicago Cubs.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Jon Berti – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)
  Typically, batters like Jon Berti who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Shane Smith.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs’ bullpen ranks as the 4th-worst among all the teams in the game.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 40 games (+13.65 Units / 25% ROI)
• Over/Under 11.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 22 away games (+7.30 Units / 30% ROI)
• Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-155/+120)
  Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+5.40 Units / 22% ROI)