Odds and Betting Trends for Padres vs Phillies – 7/1/25

San Diego Padres

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Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies will host the San Diego Padres at Citizens Bank Park on July 1, 2025, in a matchup that carries significant implications for both teams’ standings. Currently, the Phillies hold a record of 50-35, showcasing a strong season, while the Padres sit at 45-39, offering an above-average performance. The Phillies are firmly in the mix for postseason contention, while the Padres are looking to improve their position.

In their previous game, the Phillies delivered a solid performance, securing a victory against the Padres. The matchup on Saturday features Cristopher Sanchez projected to start for Philadelphia, boasting an impressive 2.79 ERA and ranking as the 13th best starting pitcher in MLB, according to advanced metrics. Sanchez’s strengths include a high strikeout percentage, but he faces a challenge against a low-strikeout Padres offense that ranks 3rd least in the league. This dynamic could give the Padres an unexpected advantage.

On the mound for San Diego is Nick Pivetta, who has had a strong season himself, with a record of 8-2 and a solid 3.36 ERA, ranking 55th among MLB starters. However, he will need to navigate a potent Phillies offense that ranks 9th in overall talent, including their 6th best batting average. The projections suggest the Phillies could light up the scoreboard, given their high implied team total of 4.75 runs.

With the Padres ranking 23rd in overall offensive performance and struggling with power, they may find it challenging to keep pace with the Phillies, especially with Sanchez’s groundball tendencies. As the Phillies look to capitalize on their home advantage, this matchup promises to be a key moment in the ongoing series.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Nick Pivetta – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Nick Pivetta’s curveball percentage has increased by 5.1% from last year to this one (16.5% to 21.6%) .
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Jose Iglesias – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-225/+170)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Jose Iglesias are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Cristopher Sanchez.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Jackson Merrill has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.8%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 9th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-165)
  Out of every team on the slate today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Bryson Stott – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Bryson Stott has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (57% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th in the lineup today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-165)
  The Philadelphia Phillies projected lineup grades out as the 4th-best of the day in terms of overall offensive skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-175)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 32 of their last 56 games (+13.00 Units / 14% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-110/-120)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 27 away games (+11.30 Units / 36% ROI)
• Gavin Sheets – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+110)
  Gavin Sheets has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+9.40 Units / 29% ROI)