Odds and Betting Trends for Padres vs Phillies – 7/1/25

San Diego Padres

@

Philadelphia Phillies

The San Diego Padres (45-39) will battle the Philadelphia Phillies (50-35) on Wednesday Night. Oddsmakers peg the Phillies as the favorite with an implied win probablity of 60%, leaving the Padres with a 40% chance to record a win. Based on the current odds the Padres have an implied team total of 3.80 compared to 4.70 for the Phillies.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Dylan Cease – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)
  Dylan Cease has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording 3.6 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Jose Iglesias – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-205/+160)
  Jose Iglesias’s average exit velocity has declined this season; his 85.8-mph figure last year has fallen off to 83.3-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres’ bullpen ranks as the 7th-best among all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Cristopher Sanchez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-165/+130)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Cristopher Sanchez in the 86th percentile when estimating his strikeout skill.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  In terms of his home runs, Kyle Schwarber has had some very good luck this year. His 40.0 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 29.5.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Brandon Marsh – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Brandon Marsh has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.6%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the game’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-165)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 41 of their last 77 games (+12.55 Units / 10% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 32 of their last 50 games (+12.40 Units / 21% ROI)
• Xander Bogaerts – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+850/-2300)
  Xander Bogaerts has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 away games (+11.10 Units / 222% ROI)