Odds and Betting Trends for Padres vs Dodgers – 6/19/25

San Diego Padres

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Los Angeles Dodgers

On June 19, 2025, the Los Angeles Dodgers host the San Diego Padres at Dodger Stadium in a pivotal National League West showdown. The Dodgers are enjoying an impressive season with a 46-29 record, while the Padres sit at 39-34, showcasing an above-average campaign. This matchup is particularly significant given the Dodgers’ dominant form and the recent performance of their ace, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who has been solid this year, highlighted by a strong 2.64 ERA and an elite ranking as the 7th best starting pitcher in MLB.

In their last game, the Padres fell to the Dodgers, and as they enter this series, they face a daunting task against a potent Dodgers lineup that ranks 1st in MLB in both batting average and home runs. The projections indicate that the Dodgers have a high implied team total of 5.43 runs today, reflecting confidence in their offensive prowess.

Yamamoto’s ability to keep the ball on the ground (57% groundball rate) will be tested against a Padres offense that has struggled to generate power, ranking 27th in MLB in home runs. Conversely, Padres pitcher Ryan Bergert, who has posted a promising 2.33 ERA, is likely to face challenges against a Dodgers offense that excels at drawing walks and hitting home runs. Bergert’s high-flyball tendencies could be exploited by the Dodgers, who have hit 115 home runs this season.

With the Dodgers listed as significant betting favorites and a current moneyline of -240, they are expected to capitalize on their home-field advantage and superior offensive capabilities. The game’s total is set at a high 9.0 runs, indicating expectations for a high-scoring affair. This matchup promises to be an exciting clash as the Dodgers look to assert their dominance in the division.

San Diego Padres Insights

• San Diego Padres – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+200)
  Ryan Bergert is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.9% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #2 HR venue among all major league stadiums in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Xander Bogaerts – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+135)
  Xander Bogaerts is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Fernando Tatis Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 95th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game’s 9th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Yoshinobu Yamamoto – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Yoshinobu Yamamoto has gone to his curveball 5% less often this year (18.2%) than he did last season (23.2%).
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Shohei Ohtani has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 101.4-mph average to last year’s 99-mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-255)
  The best projected batting order of all teams today in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the Los Angeles Dodgers.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 40 games at home (+11.95 Units / 27% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-110/-120)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games (+8.60 Units / 18% ROI)
• Xander Bogaerts – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+165/-215)
  Xander Bogaerts has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+9.85 Units / 34% ROI)