Odds and Betting Trends for Dodgers vs Astros – 7/27/24

Los Angeles Dodgers

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Houston Astros

As the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers prepare for the second game of their interleague series on July 27, 2024, both teams are well-positioned in their respective leagues. The Astros boast a 54-49 record and are enjoying an above-average season, while the Dodgers are having a great run with a 62-43 record. This weekend clash at Minute Maid Park is made even more interesting by Houston’s 5-0 shutout victory over Los Angeles just one day earlier.

Ronel Blanco is set to start for the Astros. Blanco, a right-handed pitcher, has shown flashes of brilliance this season evidenced by his stellar 2.75 ERA. However, with a 4.19 xFIP, it appears he’s been somewhat fortunate, and may be due for some regression. Despite his 9-5 win-loss record, the advanced-stat Power Rankings place him at 206th out of approximately 350 pitchers in the league, making him one of the less effective starters. Blanco’s propensity for flyballs (41 FB%) and high walk rate (9.5 BB%) could spell trouble against a powerhouse Dodgers offense that ranks 3rd in home runs (139) and 1st overall.

On the other side, the Dodgers will counter with southpaw Justin Wrobleski, who has struggled in his limited starts this season. Wrobleski carries an average 4.40 ERA but with a concerning 4.97 xFIP. Given his control issues (10.2 BB%), he faces a Houston offense that, although impatient at the plate (#4 least walks in MLB), is potent, ranking 10th best in overall offense and 2nd in team batting average.

Houston’s lineup has been led by Yordan Alvarez, who has a .301 batting average and a .929 OPS. Additionally, Jeremy Pena has been on fire over the past week with a .409 batting average and 1.231 OPS. In contrast, the Dodgers’ Shohei Ohtani continues to shine with 31 home runs and an impressive .315 batting average, supported recently by Gavin Lux’s remarkable .550 average and 1.621 OPS over the last seven games.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, this game is expected to be tight, projecting Houston’s win probability at 53%. However, the current market sees value in the Dodgers, given their win probability appears 6% higher than the betting lines suggest. The Astros are favored at -155, implying a 59% win chance, while the Dodgers sit at +135, with a 41% implied win probability. Those looking for value might find it in the Dodgers as an underdog, given the disparity in projections versus betting odds.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Justin Wrobleski – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Justin Wrobleski’s 2409-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 83rd percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Enrique Hernandez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  When it comes to his home runs, Kike Hernandez has had positive variance on his side this year. His 15.3 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 7.9.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers’ bullpen ranks as the 7th-best among all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Houston Astros Insights

• Ronel Blanco – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-155/+120)
  Compared to the average starter, Ronel Blanco has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an additional 5.7 adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Jon Singleton – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Jon Singleton has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 6.5% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Jose Altuve pulls many of his flyballs (41.8% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Run Line -1.5 (+135)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 23 of their last 31 games (+15.70 Units / 38% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+105/-125)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 46 away games (+4.40 Units / 9% ROI)
• Alex Bregman – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+100/-130)
  Alex Bregman has hit the Runs Over in 30 of his last 48 games (+15.65 Units / 32% ROI)