Odds and Betting Trends for Cardinals vs Red Sox – 4/5/25

St. Louis Cardinals

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Boston Red Sox

As the Boston Red Sox prepare to face the St. Louis Cardinals on April 5, 2025, the stakes are high following an exciting previous matchup where the Red Sox outlasted the Cardinals 13-9. Both teams come into this game with similar records, but the Cardinals have been performing better overall, sitting at 4-3 compared to the Red Sox’s 4-4.

On the mound, Richard Fitts is projected to start for Boston. His Power Rankings place him as the 238th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating struggles so far this season. Fitts has a 0-1 record with an ERA of 4.50, and while the projections suggest he might experience some positive regression, his ability to go deep into games will be crucial as he averages just 5.0 innings pitched.

In contrast, St. Louis will send out Andre Pallante, who ranks 72nd in MLB and boasts a 1-0 record with a solid 3.60 ERA. However, Pallante’s high walk rate could give the Red Sox’s patient offense an edge, as they rank 3rd in strikeouts but 5th in walks drawn this season.

Offensively, the Cardinals have been impressive, ranking 3rd overall and 1st in team batting average. Meanwhile, the Red Sox sit at 19th in both overall offense and batting average. Despite the Red Sox’s average offensive metrics, they are projected to score 4.45 runs, compared to the Cardinals’ 4.05 runs.

With a close moneyline favoring the Red Sox at -130, this matchup offers intriguing potential for bettors, especially considering Boston’s recent offensive explosion. The Red Sox will need to capitalize on their home-field advantage and hope Fitts can find a way to keep the Cardinals’ bats in check.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)
  In his previous start, Andre Pallante was in good form and allowed 2 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Nolan Arenado’s 3.3% Barrel% (an advanced standard to study power) grades out in the 10th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The St. Louis Cardinals (20.2 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 2nd-least strikeout-prone lineup of all teams on the slate today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Richard Fitts – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Richard Fitts has been given a below-average leash since the start of last season, throwing 12.1 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Connor Wong – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Connor Wong’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off lately; his 94.7-mph seasonal mark has decreased to 77.8-mph over the last 7 days.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Boston Red Sox hitters as a group grade out 5th- in Major League Baseball for power since the start of last season when judging by their 9.1% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Run Line +1.5 (-180)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.85 Units / 36% ROI)
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Lars Nootbaar has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+8.90 Units / 31% ROI)