Odds and Betting Trends for Athletics vs Tigers – 6/24/25

Athletics

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Detroit Tigers

On June 24, 2025, the Detroit Tigers will host the Oakland Athletics at Comerica Park in what marks the first game of a series between these two teams. The Tigers currently boast a strong record of 49-30, positioning them well in the standings, while the Athletics sit at 32-48, struggling significantly this season. Detroit has shown remarkable form, and they are coming off a strong performance, having recently recorded a complete game shutout.

The matchup on the mound is particularly intriguing, as the Tigers are projected to start Tarik Skubal, who has established himself as the 1st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. Skubal’s impressive 8-2 record and an elite ERA of 2.06 highlight his dominance this season. He projects to pitch around 6.3 innings, allowing only 1.7 earned runs and striking out approximately 8.4 batters, showcasing his ability to control the game.

In contrast, the Athletics will counter with Luis Severino, who has struggled this season with a 2-7 record and a mediocre ERA of 4.42. Although his 3.73 FIP suggests he might have been unlucky, he remains a low-strikeout pitcher facing a Tigers offense that ranks 6th in MLB for strikeouts. Severino’s projections indicate he will likely pitch 5.7 innings, allowing about 3.2 earned runs, which could be a tough outing against a potent Tigers lineup.

The Tigers’ offense has also performed well, ranking 6th overall and showing depth in their batting. Meanwhile, the Athletics, while holding a respectable 10th place in overall offensive rankings, have not been able to translate that into consistent wins.

With the Tigers favored heavily in the betting markets, they look set to continue their strong run against a struggling Athletics team. As the game total is set at a low 7.0 runs, it’ll be interesting to see if Skubal can capitalize on his elite status to guide Detroit to victory.

Athletics Insights

• Luis Severino – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Luis Severino has relied on his secondary offerings 12% more often this season (51.7%) than he did last year (39.7%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Brent Rooker has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.8-mph to 97-mph over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The underlying talent of the Athletics projected batting order today (.307 projected wOBA per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a good deal weaker than their .319 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Tarik Skubal – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Tarik Skubal’s fastball spin rate has spiked 103 rpm this season (2329 rpm) over where it was last year (2226 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Javier Baez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Extreme groundball bats like Javier Baez tend to be less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Luis Severino.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Detroit Tigers – 2H Moneyline
  The Detroit Tigers bullpen projects as the 9th-best in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Over in 47 of their last 79 games (+10.45 Units / 11% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-125/+105)
  The Athletics have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 51 games (+6.15 Units / 11% ROI)
• Colt Keith – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Colt Keith has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+7.65 Units / 44% ROI)