Odds and Betting Trends for Angels vs Tigers – 8/10/25

Los Angeles Angels

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Detroit Tigers

As the Detroit Tigers prepare to face the Los Angeles Angels on August 10, 2025, both teams are looking to capitalize on their current form. The Tigers sit at 67-51, enjoying a solid season, while the Angels trail at 56-61, struggling to find consistent success. In their last matchup, the Tigers fell to the Angels by a score of 7-4, adding to the urgency for Detroit to bounce back in this crucial third game of the series.

Detroit will send Casey Mize to the mound, who has a Win/Loss record of 10-4 and an impressive ERA of 3.50 this season. Despite being ranked the 122nd best starting pitcher, Mize’s recent performance indicates he may have been a bit lucky, as his xFIP stands at 4.10, suggesting potential regression. He pitched 6 innings in his last start, allowing 3 earned runs, which was relatively uneventful. Mize projects to pitch 5.2 innings today, allowing an average of 2.7 earned runs, and while his strikeout rate is below average, he could still be effective against the Angels’ lineup.

On the other side, Jack Kochanowicz, with a troubling 3-9 record and a dismal 5.85 ERA, has struggled to find his footing this season. He was hit hard in his last outing, allowing 5 earned runs over 6 innings. Kochanowicz’s projections are equally concerning, with an average of 3.0 earned runs allowed and a low strikeout rate of 3.4 per game, which does not bode well against a Tigers offense that ranks 9th in MLB.

With the Tigers’ potent offense and a strong bullpen ranked 4th overall, they enter this game as significant favorites with an implied team total of 5.39 runs. Meanwhile, the Angels’ lineup, despite ranking 4th in home runs, has struggled overall, which could play into Detroit’s hands today. As both teams look to secure a vital win, the Tigers appear well-positioned to take advantage of their home field and the Angels’ pitching woes.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Jack Kochanowicz – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Among all SPs, Jack Kochanowicz’s fastball velocity of 94.9 mph ranks in the 80th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Logan O’Hoppe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Logan O’Hoppe has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 97.6-mph average to last season’s 94.6-mph average.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Zach Neto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Zach Neto pulls many of his flyballs (35.7% — 91st percentile) and will be challenged by MLB’s 5th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Casey Mize – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Casey Mize will record an average of 1.3 singles today.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Javier Baez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  Extreme groundball bats like Javier Baez generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Jack Kochanowicz.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Detroit Tigers have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Dillon Dingler, Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+110)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 40 of their last 62 games at home (+17.33 Units / 25% ROI)
• Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 58 games (+17.25 Units / 25% ROI)
• Zach Neto – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+110/-140)
  Zach Neto has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+7.75 Units / 30% ROI)