Odds and Betting Tips for Yankees vs White Sox – 8/14/2024

New York Yankees

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Chicago White Sox

As the Chicago White Sox host the New York Yankees on August 14, 2024, at Guaranteed Rate Field, they face a pivotal moment in a season that has gone awry. Currently, the White Sox sit last in the American League with a dismal record of 29-92, while the Yankees are in a strong position with a 71-50 record, vying for a playoff spot. In their previous game, the Yankees emerged victorious, defeating the White Sox 4-1, continuing to highlight the struggles of Chicago’s lineup.

Davis Martin is set to take the mound for the White Sox, projecting to pitch 4.6 innings with 3.1 earned runs allowed on average. Although he has a decent ERA of 3.65 this season, his advanced metrics suggest he has benefited from good fortune, making him a cause for concern against a potent Yankees offense. Martin’s high flyball rate (44%) could prove detrimental, especially against a New York lineup that leads MLB with 149 home runs.

Will Warren takes the hill for the Yankees, looking to improve on an ERA of 11.17. Although his ERA suggests struggles, he projects to average 5.3 innings with 2.6 earned runs allowed. Warren’s ability to manage flyballs might benefit him, given the White Sox’s lack of power this season, ranking 28th in home runs with just 90.

THE BAT X projects the Yankees to score an impressive 6.29 runs while giving the White Sox a low team total of 3.57 runs. The White Sox need a remarkable performance from their hitters, especially with Gavin Sheets stepping up recently, but they’ll have their work cut out for them against a well-rounded Yankees squad that ranks 1st in the league.

New York Yankees Insights

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-220)
  In his previous game started, Will Warren conceded a colossal 8 earned runs.
  Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Aaron Judge’s true offensive ability to be a .426, implying that he has been lucky this year given the .050 gap between that figure and his actual .476 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• New York Yankees – 2H Moneyline
  The New York Yankees bullpen ranks as the 7th-worst in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Davis Martin – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Davis Martin to throw 83 pitches in this matchup (8th-least of all pitchers today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Nicky Lopez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Nicky Lopez is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 62% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Brooks Baldwin – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Riley Baldwin pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.7% — 85th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s 9th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 58 games (+5.55 Units / 9% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 48 of their last 73 games (+22.10 Units / 27% ROI)
• Gleyber Torres – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-120/-110)
  Gleyber Torres has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 27 games (+11.95 Units / 37% ROI)