Odds and Betting Tips for Marlins vs Mariners – 4/25/2025

Miami Marlins

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Seattle Mariners

As both teams prepare to clash on April 25, 2025, at T-Mobile Park, the Seattle Mariners will look to build on their positive momentum against the Miami Marlins. Currently sitting at 14-11, the Mariners are enjoying a solid stretch of baseball, while the Marlins, with an 11-13 record, are struggling to find their rhythm this season.

In their last outing, the Mariners exhibited their offensive firepower, leaving fans excited about their potential as they gear up for this matchup. Seattle is projected to start Logan Gilbert, who has shown excellent form with a 2.63 ERA, ranking him as the 16th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. His ability to maintain an impressive strikeout rate of 8.1 projected strikeouts per game could be crucial in neutralizing Miami’s hitters.

On the other side, the Marlins will counter with Cal Quantrill, whose struggles continue to plague him this season. With an ERA of 8.31 and projections indicating he’ll likely pitch just 5.0 innings, the Mariners’ high-strikeout offense could capitalize on his low strikeout rate and high walk tendencies, further tilting the odds in Seattle’s favor.

While both teams have underwhelming bullpens, ranking 28th and 29th in the league respectively, the Mariners’ offense stands out. With a 10th overall ranking, bolstered by their 6th place in home runs, they pose a significant threat to the Marlins, who rank 23rd in that category.

The game total sits low at 7.5 runs, reflecting the potential mismatch on the mound. Despite the Mariners being heavy favorites with a moneyline of -255, the matchup leans heavily in favor of Seattle, indicating a strong opportunity for betting value. Overall, this contest promises plenty of excitement as the Mariners aim to solidify their competitive edge against the struggling Marlins.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+205)
  Cal Quantrill allowed a colossal 6 earned runs in his last start.
  Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• Dane Myers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Extreme groundball batters like Dane Myers tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Logan Gilbert.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  The Miami Marlins bullpen grades out as the worst in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Logan Gilbert – Over/Under 8.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Given that flyball pitchers are hit hardest by groundball hitters, Logan Gilbert (35.4% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged today with 3 GB hitters in Miami’s projected batting order.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Dylan Moore – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Dylan Moore has a ton of pop (84th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s usually a big “IF” (27% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Cal Quantrill struggles to strike batters out (25th percentile K%) — great news for Moore.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Cal Raleigh pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.9% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.90 Units / 46% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 24 games (+8.30 Units / 29% ROI)
• Eric Wagaman – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+750/-1700)
  Eric Wagaman has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+12.00 Units / 200% ROI)