Odds and Betting Tips for Mariners vs Cardinals – 9/6/2024

Seattle Mariners

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St. Louis Cardinals

As the St. Louis Cardinals host the Seattle Mariners on September 6, 2024, both teams find themselves in a similar predicament, hovering around the .500 mark with records of 71-69 and 71-70, respectively. With playoff hopes fading for both squads, this series opener becomes crucial for momentum heading into the final stretch of the season. The Mariners recently secured a 6-4 victory against the Athletics, while the Cardinals edged past the Brewers with a tight 3-2 win.

On the mound, both teams will rely on right-handed pitchers. The Cardinals are set to start Erick Fedde, who has had an above-average season, ranking 80th among Major League Baseball’s starting pitchers with a solid 3.43 ERA. However, his 4.17 xFIP indicates some underlying vulnerabilities, suggesting he might have benefited from good fortune thus far. Fedde projects to allow 2.5 earned runs today, though he has struggled with walks, averaging 1.5 per game, which could be problematic against a Mariners lineup looking for opportunities.

On the flip side, Bryce Miller, ranked 73rd among starting pitchers, has shown consistency with a 3.30 ERA. The projections suggest that while Miller has been efficient, his strikeout rate of 4.3 batters per game is below average, which could hinder his effectiveness against the Cardinals’ offense, ranked 18th overall.

Looking at the offensive side, the Cardinals boast Paul Goldschmidt, who has shined recently with a .444 batting average over the past week. Meanwhile, the Mariners have struggled offensively, sitting 25th in overall rankings and dead last in team batting average.

Despite the relatively low Game Total of 7.0 runs, the projections lean slightly in favor of the Mariners for this matchup. Given the circumstances, the Cardinals might surprise with their recent form and the potential for Fedde’s good fortune to shine through.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Bryce Miller – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Bryce Miller has utilized his off-speed and breaking balls 5.5% more often this year (39.4%) than he did last season (33.9%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Luke Raley – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Luke Raley has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 98.5-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 89.5-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Bryce Miller – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Cal Raleigh (the Mariners’s expected catcher in today’s game) grades out as an elite pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Erick Fedde – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  In his previous game started, Erick Fedde was on point and notched 8 strikeouts.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Alec Burleson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  In terms of his home runs, Alec Burleson has been lucky this year. His 24.4 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 17.3.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• St. Louis Cardinals – 2H Moneyline
  The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen ranks as the 9th-best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-125/-105)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 18 of their last 27 games (+7.65 Units / 22% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 55 away games (+16.45 Units / 27% ROI)
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+750/-1600)
  Nolan Arenado has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 48 games (+13.40 Units / 28% ROI)