Odds and Betting Tips for Cubs vs Rockies – 9/15/2024

Chicago Cubs

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Colorado Rockies

As the Colorado Rockies prepare to face off against the Chicago Cubs at Coors Field on September 15, 2024, both teams find themselves in the midst of contrasting seasons. The Rockies sit at the bottom of their division with a record of 56-92, while the Cubs hold a respectable 75-72, placing them in the mix for a potential Wild Card spot. This matchup is particularly crucial for Chicago as they aim to solidify their postseason aspirations.

In their last outing, the Rockies struggled once again, and their season continues to spiral downward. Meanwhile, the Cubs have shown signs of life, with their best hitter, Michael Busch, boasting a .400 batting average over the past week and contributing significantly to the lineup with eight hits and seven RBIs. Busch’s recent performance is a bright spot for the Cubs, who rank 18th in team batting average this season but have the 7th best stolen bases count, showcasing their ability to create scoring opportunities.

On the mound, the Rockies will send out right-hander Antonio Senzatela, while the Cubs counter with lefty Justin Steele. Senzatela has struggled throughout the year, but the projections indicate that the Rockies could score as many as 6.03 runs in this matchup, which is quite promising given their overall offensive struggles. Conversely, the Cubs are projected to score 6.56 runs, reflecting their stronger season overall.

With a Game Total set at 11.0 runs, this game could see plenty of offense, and with betting markets showing a close contest—Colorado’s moneyline at +110 and Chicago’s at -130—it promises to be an engaging matchup for fans and bettors alike.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Kyle Hendricks – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+130/-170)
  Tallying 14 outs per GS this year on average, Kyle Hendricks places him the 6th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+125/-160)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.237) may lead us to conclude that Seiya Suzuki has been lucky this year with his .274 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• The Chicago Cubs have been the 5th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better going forward
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Cal Quantrill – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Cal Quantrill has relied on his change-up 12.1% more often this season (34.5%) than he did last year (22.4%).
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Ryan McMahon has a ton of pop (81st percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s usually a big “IF” (29.7% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Justin Steele struggles to strike batters out (14th percentile K%) — great news for McMahon.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Colorado Rockies batters collectively rank near the cellar of the majors this year ( 9th-worst) as far as their 88.5-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Moneyline (+115)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 51 games at home (+8.64 Units / 16% ROI)
• Over/Under 11.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 33 away games (+11.95 Units / 33% ROI)
• Jacob Stallings – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Jacob Stallings has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 12 games at home (+2.75 Units / 14% ROI)