Nationals vs Yankees Picks and Odds – August 27, 2025

Washington Nationals

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New York Yankees

As the New York Yankees prepare to face the Washington Nationals on August 27, 2025, at Yankee Stadium, they come off a strong win in their last matchup, further solidifying their position in the playoff race. Currently sitting at 72-60, the Yankees are enjoying an above-average season, while the Nationals, at 53-79, are struggling significantly.

Max Fried, projected to take the mound for the Yankees, is having an elite season, ranked as the 8th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. With a 13-5 record and an impressive ERA of 3.14, Fried has proven to be a reliable asset for New York. His ability to induce ground balls (51% GB rate) fits well against a Nationals offense that ranks 28th in home runs, showcasing their lack of power.

On the other side, Cade Cavalli will start for Washington. Although he has a solid ERA of 2.82, his limited experience—having started just 4 games this year—raises questions about his consistency. The projections suggest that Cavalli may be due for regression, especially as he faces the Yankees’ powerful lineup, which leads MLB with 219 home runs.

The Yankees’ offense is firing on all cylinders, ranking 1st in MLB overall and 9th in batting average. They boast a high implied team total of 5.21 runs for today’s game, reflecting their potent hitting ability. In contrast, the Nationals’ offense sits at a disappointing 23rd overall, with an implied team total of just 3.29 runs, indicating a tough matchup ahead.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Luis Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)
  The New York Yankees have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Luis Garcia Jr. stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The Washington Nationals have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (James Wood, Riley Adams, Brady House).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

New York Yankees Insights

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-245)
  Max Fried was on point in his last game started and gave up 2 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Ben Rice – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Ben Rice has had some very poor luck this year. His .356 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .420.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• New York Yankees batters collectively place in the majors for power this year when assessing with their 11.7% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 48 games (+14.15 Units / 27% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 55 games (+10.65 Units / 17% ROI)
• Ben Rice – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+120/-155)
  Ben Rice has hit the Walks Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+6.30 Units / 79% ROI)