Nationals vs Orioles Picks and Odds – May 17, 2025

Washington Nationals

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Baltimore Orioles

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to face off against the Washington Nationals on May 17, 2025, both teams find themselves struggling in the early season. The Orioles sit at 15-28, while the Nationals are just slightly better at 19-27. This Interleague matchup comes on the heels of a closely contested game yesterday, where the Orioles fell to the Nationals by a score of 4-3, extending their disappointing run.

Baltimore’s Kyle Gibson is projected to take the mound, coming off a rocky outing where he allowed 5 earned runs in just 4 innings on May 10. With a dismal 13.11 ERA this season, Gibson’s performance has ranked him as the 223rd best starting pitcher in MLB, placing him among the league’s worst. However, advanced projections suggest he has been unlucky, with a more favorable 5.46 xFIP that indicates potential for improvement.

On the other side, Jake Irvin of the Nationals has been more effective, boasting a solid 4.00 ERA. Though Irvin has had his struggles, his win-loss record of 2-1 indicates a higher level of performance this season compared to Gibson. The Nationals’ offense, ranked 21st in MLB, has shown signs of life, particularly from their best hitter, who has been contributing with a .310 batting average over the past week.

Despite the lackluster records, oddsmakers favor the Orioles with a moneyline of -150, implying a win probability of 58%. The projections suggest a total of 10.5 runs, hinting at an expectation for a high-scoring affair. With a struggling Orioles offense ranked 22nd in MLB and a strong bullpen rated 9th, the match-up favors them slightly, but both teams will need their pitchers to step up in this contest.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+110)
  Jake Irvin is an extreme flyball pitcher (35% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #3 HR venue among all major league stadiums in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• James Wood – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  James Wood has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 100.1-mph average to last season’s 96.6-mph average.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The 7.7% Barrel% of the Washington Nationals ranks them as the #21 group of hitters in the majors this year by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Kyle Gibson – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Kyle Gibson has relied on his off-speed and breaking pitches 5.8% less often this year (54.5%) than he did last season (60.3%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Extreme groundball batters like Cedric Mullins tend to be less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Jake Irvin.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Cedric Mullins pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.7% — 94th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 18 games (+9.75 Units / 45% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 away games (+8.55 Units / 31% ROI)
• Jacob Young – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+145/-190)
  Jacob Young has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 46% ROI)