Nationals vs D-Backs Picks and Betting Odds – 7/29/2024

Washington Nationals

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Arizona Diamondbacks

The Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Washington Nationals at Chase Field on July 29, 2024, in a National League matchup. Arizona, with a record of 55-51, is having an above-average season, bolstered by their #8 ranked offense in MLB. Meanwhile, Washington’s subpar record of 49-57 reflects their struggles, particularly with an offense that ranks 25th overall.

For Arizona, left-hander Jordan Montgomery (7-5, 6.11 ERA) is slated to start. Despite a poor ERA, Montgomery’s 4.63 xFIP suggests he’s been unlucky and may perform better going forward. Montgomery averages 5.3 innings per start, allowing 2.5 earned runs and 6.0 hits, with a low strikeout rate of 14.9%. His last outing on July 23 saw him pitch well, giving up just 1 earned run over 5 innings.

On the other side, Washington will counter with lefty Mitchell Parker (5-6, 4.34 ERA). Parker has been inconsistent, as evidenced by his last start on July 24, where he got shelled for 6 earned runs in 3 innings. Projected to pitch 4.7 innings, Parker is expected to allow 2.9 earned runs and 5.5 hits, while striking out just 3.7 batters on average.

Arizona’s bats, led by Ketel Marte, who boasts a .296 average and a .900 OPS, could be crucial in exploiting Parker’s vulnerabilities. Marte has been particularly hot over the past week, hitting .421 with 4 home runs and 11 RBIs. In contrast, the Nationals’ top hitter, CJ Abrams, has struggled to provide consistent power, although he does bring speed with 19 stolen bases.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives Arizona a 63% chance of winning this game, aligning closely with the betting odds that imply a 60% win probability. With Arizona’s potent offense and superior bullpen, the D-Backs are poised to kick off this series with a win against the Nationals.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Mitchell Parker – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Given his reverse platoon split, Mitchell Parker will benefit from matching up with 7 bats in the projected lineup of opposing handedness in this matchup.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• James Wood – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  James Wood is an extreme groundball batter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Arizona (#3-best of the day).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• James Wood – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  James Wood hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 97th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 3rd-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Jordan Montgomery – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Jordan Montgomery’s fastball velocity has dropped 1.5 mph this year (91.1 mph) below where it was last season (92.6 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Gabriel Moreno – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+185/-245)
  Gabriel Moreno has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (76% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks (20.2 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 4th-least strikeout-prone group of hitters of the day.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+110/-130)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 50 games (+15.10 Units / 27% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Run Line +1.5 (-145)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 57 of their last 99 games (+10.50 Units / 8% ROI)
• Jake McCarthy – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-205)
  Jake McCarthy has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 12 games at home (+9.75 Units / 57% ROI)