Nationals vs Braves Value Bets and Betting Line – 8/24/2024

Washington Nationals

@

Atlanta Braves

As the Atlanta Braves host the Washington Nationals in this key National League East matchup on August 24, 2024, the playoff picture is already looking bright for the Braves, who sit comfortably above .500 at 69-59. On the flip side, the Nationals, with a record of 58-71, are struggling this season and unable to find a foothold in the competitive division.

In their most recent encounter, the Braves secured a victory, continuing their strong performance as they aim to solidify their playoff positioning. Charlie Morton takes the mound for Atlanta, boasting a 7-7 record and an average ERA of 4.29. Although ranked 105th among MLB starters, Morton’s projections show potential for a solid outing, with an average of 5.7 innings pitched while allowing 2.5 earned runs and striking out 6.5 batters. His ability to generate ground balls (48 GB%) might bode well against a Nationals offense that has struggled for power, ranking 2nd worst in the league with 85 home runs.

Opposing Morton is Jake Irvin, who holds a 9-10 record and a commendable ERA of 3.81. However, he struggles with strikeouts, projecting to fan only 4.5 batters on average. The Braves offense, while averaging out in several categories, ranks 10th in home runs, which could exploit Irvin’s lack of swing-and-miss stuff.

Betting markets have made the Braves significant favorites, with an implied team total of 4.82 runs. This matchup, highlighting the Braves’ stronger bullpen ranked 10th versus the Nationals’ 29th, suggests that Atlanta’s chances of coming away with another victory are high. With the stakes rising, the Braves look to extend their momentum against a struggling Nationals squad.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Jake Irvin – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Jake Irvin’s higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this season (44.4% compared to 35.4% last season) should work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• CJ Abrams – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  CJ Abrams’s average exit velocity has dropped off of late; his 87.9-mph seasonal average has decreased to 81.3-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Washington Nationals have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Joey Gallo, Jose Tena, James Wood).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Charlie Morton – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Charlie Morton’s 93.3-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a sizeable 1-mph fall off from last season’s 94.3-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Marcell Ozuna’s true offensive talent to be a .350, indicating that he has had some very good luck this year given the .056 disparity between that mark and his actual .406 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Atlanta Braves – 2H Moneyline
  The Atlanta Braves bullpen grades out as the 10th-best in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 71 of their last 112 games (+29.90 Units / 24% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 55 games (+9.25 Units / 15% ROI)
• Luis Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-145/+115)
  Luis Garcia has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+8.70 Units / 27% ROI)