Washington Nationals
Atlanta Braves
(-120/+100)-270
As the Atlanta Braves prepare to host the Washington Nationals on September 22, 2025, both teams find themselves in the midst of disappointing seasons, with the Braves sitting at 73-83 and the Nationals at 64-92. The Braves have struggled to find consistency, and their recent form has not helped, but they are still projected to start Chris Sale, who has been a bright spot this year. Sale boasts a stellar 2.35 ERA and ranks as the 9th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating his elite status.
In their last outing, Sale’s performance was impressive as he continues to showcase his ability to limit earned runs, projecting an average of just 1.9 earned runs today. He is a low-walk pitcher facing a Nationals offense that ranks as the 3rd least patient in the league, which could play to his advantage. However, Sale’s projections indicate he may be due for some regression, especially considering his high expected fielding independent pitching (xFIP) of 2.92.
On the other side, MacKenzie Gore will take the mound for the Nationals. Gore has struggled this season with a 4.00 ERA and a subpar 5-14 record. His projections are not favorable either, as he is expected to pitch only 4.8 innings while allowing an average of 2.9 earned runs.
The Braves’ offense ranks as the 13th best in MLB, but their recent performance has been average at best. Conversely, the Nationals’ offense is struggling at 25th overall, which could make it difficult for them to capitalize on any opportunities against Sale. With a low game total of 7.0 runs, betting on the Braves at -250 could be worth considering, especially given their stronger pitching matchup and home-field advantage.
Washington Nationals Insights
- MacKenzie Gore – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)MacKenzie Gore’s 94.6-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a sizeable 1.3-mph decline from last season’s 95.9-mph mark.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Jacob Young – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)Jacob Young’s average exit velocity has fallen off in recent games; his 86.8-mph seasonal figure has fallen off to 76.3-mph in the last 7 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Paul DeJong – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)Paul DeJong pulls a lot of his flyballs (36% — 91st percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 2nd-deepest LF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Atlanta Braves Insights
- Chris Sale – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+125/-160)Chris Sale has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 8.1 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average hurler.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)Ozzie Albies is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the strong outfield defense of Washington (#2-best of all teams on the slate today).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Atlanta Braves – Moneyline (-270)The best projected batting order of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive ability belongs to the Atlanta Braves.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-145)The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 41 games at home (+12.70 Units / 26% ROI)
- Washington Nationals – Moneyline (+230)The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 67 away games (+9.70 Units / 14% ROI)
- CJ Abrams – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+130)CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 away games (+7.70 Units / 18% ROI)