Mets vs Tigers Game Analysis and Winning Probability – Monday, September 01, 2025

New York Mets

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Detroit Tigers

As the Detroit Tigers prepare to host the New York Mets on September 1, 2025, both teams are in the thick of their respective seasons, with the Tigers sporting a solid record of 80-58 and the Mets at 73-64. The Tigers are currently enjoying an impressive performance, while the Mets are having an above-average season, making this interleague matchup particularly intriguing. The game is the first in a series between these two clubs, which adds to the excitement.

In their last outing, the Tigers showcased their strength with a dominant 5-0 victory, while the Mets fell short, losing 5-1. On the mound, the Tigers will rely on Charlie Morton, who has had a challenging season with a 9-10 record and an ERA of 5.25. Despite his struggles, advanced metrics suggest he may have been unlucky thus far, as his 4.17 xFIP indicates potential for improvement. However, Morton is prone to walks, which could be problematic against a patient Mets offense that ranks 4th in the league for drawing walks.

Opposing him will be Sean Manaea, a left-handed pitcher with an average profile who has struggled with a 1-2 record and a 5.01 ERA. His projections indicate he should pitch around 5.2 innings while allowing around 2.7 earned runs, which could keep the Tigers’ offense, ranked 11th in MLB, in the game.

With both teams vying for momentum and a close moneyline set at -110 for each side, expect a competitive matchup as they look to capitalize on the other’s pitching weaknesses. The total for the game is set at 8.5 runs, indicating a balanced contest that could swing either way.

New York Mets Insights

• Sean Manaea – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Sean Manaea has relied on his four-seam fastball 48.2% more often this year (59.5%) than he did last season (11.3%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Mark Vientos has made big gains with his Barrel% lately, upping his 10.8% seasonal rate to 30.6% over the last two weeks.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets’ bullpen ranks as the 8th-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Charlie Morton – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Placing in the 82nd percentile, Charlie Morton put up a 12% Swinging Strike rate this year.
  Explain: Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.
• Javier Baez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Javier Baez’s average exit velocity has dropped off lately; his 88.1-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 84.1-mph in the last 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Spencer Torkelson pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.8% — 96th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 5th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-160/+125)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 29 of their last 43 games at home (+14.60 Units / 29% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 48 of their last 82 games (+9.90 Units / 10% ROI)
• Pete Alonso – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Pete Alonso has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 away games (+11.80 Units / 42% ROI)