Mets vs Padres Expert Picks and Betting Guide – 7/29/2025

New York Mets

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San Diego Padres

On July 29, 2025, the San Diego Padres will host the New York Mets at Petco Park in a pivotal matchup. The Padres are currently sitting at 58-49, enjoying an above-average season, while the Mets have a strong record of 62-45, marking them as one of the top contenders this year. The Padres will look to build on their recent victory over the Mets, winning their last game 7-6 on July 28.

The pitching matchup features Ryan Bergert for the Padres and Sean Manaea for the Mets. Bergert, despite his ERA of 2.84 this season, is ranked as the 232nd best starter in MLB according to advanced metrics, indicating he’s struggled with consistency. He projects to pitch only 4.5 innings today, allowing 2.6 earned runs, and has shown issues with control, evidenced by a high walk rate of 10.8%. On the other hand, Manaea has been more reliable, boasting an ERA of 2.19 and projecting to pitch 5.5 innings with a similar earned run estimate. His average performance may give the Mets an edge against a Padres offense that ranks 23rd overall this season.

While San Diego’s offense has been lackluster, ranking 29th in home runs, the projections suggest that they could capitalize on Manaea’s fly-ball tendencies, especially given their struggles with power this season. The Padres’ best hitter has been in excellent form lately, hitting .517 over the last week, which could add a spark to their lineup.

With the Padres’ bullpen ranked 6th and the Mets’ at 28th, San Diego’s relief corps could play a critical role if the game remains close. The current game total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating a potentially competitive matchup. The Padres currently have a moneyline of +105, which reflects the betting markets’ perception of a close contest.

New York Mets Insights

• Sean Manaea – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Sean Manaea’s higher utilization rate of his fastball this season (71.5 compared to 56% last year) is not ideal since they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Francisco Lindor – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  The switch-hitting Francisco Lindor will bat from his bad side (0) today against Ryan Bergert
  Explain: Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets’ bullpen projects as the 3rd-worst among all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 60 of their last 106 games (+12.85 Units / 11% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110/-145)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 33 of their last 54 away games (+9.30 Units / 14% ROI)
• Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+160)
  Jackson Merrill has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+14.15 Units / 33% ROI)