Mets vs Orioles Betting Guide and Expert Picks July 8th, 2025

New York Mets

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Baltimore Orioles

On July 8, 2025, the Baltimore Orioles will host the New York Mets at Oriole Park at Camden Yards for the first game of their interleague series. Both teams are coming into this matchup with contrasting seasons; the Orioles sit at 40-49, struggling to find their rhythm, while the Mets boast a much more impressive 52-39 record. This game is pivotal for both teams, as it represents an opportunity for the struggling Orioles to showcase their talent against a well-performing opponent.

The Orioles will send Brandon Young to the mound, who has had a rough year with an 0-3 record and a dismal ERA of 7.02 over four starts. However, there are indicators suggesting he might perform better going forward, as his 4.60 xFIP shows he has been somewhat unlucky. Young’s projected performance today is concerning; he’s expected to pitch just 4.7 innings while allowing 2.8 earned runs and a troubling 5.0 hits.

On the other side, the Mets will counter with Clay Holmes, who has been solid this season with an 8-4 record and an impressive 2.99 ERA over 17 starts. Holmes’s projections indicate he should pitch around 5.2 innings today, allowing 2.8 earned runs. However, he has also been a high-walk pitcher, which could be a factor against the Orioles, who rank 3rd in MLB for fewest walks.

Offensively, the Orioles rank 17th in the league, but they have shown some power with the 11th most home runs. In contrast, the Mets have a dynamic offense ranked 7th overall, led by a top hitter who has recently produced 9 RBIs and 3 home runs in just the last week.

With a Game Total set at 10.0 runs, betting angles suggest a close contest, with the Orioles having an implied team total of 4.77 runs compared to the Mets at 5.23. This matchup presents an intriguing dynamic for sports bettors looking to capitalize on the Orioles’ potential to upset the favored Mets.

New York Mets Insights

• New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-150)
  In his last game started, Clay Holmes performed well and allowed 2 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Brandon Nimmo may have the upper hand against every reliever for the game’s entirety, since the bullpen of the Baltimore Orioles has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under Total Bases
  Mark Vientos hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards baseball’s 4th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Baltimore Orioles – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)
  Brandon Young is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.4% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #5 HR venue among all major league parks in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Cedric Mullins generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Clay Holmes.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Baltimore Orioles have 4 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Colton Cowser, Jacob Stallings, Tyler O’Neill, Ramon Laureano).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Ryan O’Hearn – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-125/-105)
  Ryan O’Hearn has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.50 Units / 58% ROI)