Mets vs Marlins Prediction and Team Stats Analysis – 7/20/24

New York Mets

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Miami Marlins

On July 20, 2024, the Miami Marlins will host the New York Mets at LoanDepot Park for the second game of their series. The Marlins, who have struggled mightily this season with a 34-63 record, managed to pull off a surprising 6-4 victory against the Mets yesterday. Despite their lackluster season, Miami’s bullpen has been a bright spot, ranking 10th in the league according to advanced-stat Power Rankings.

Roddery Munoz will take the mound for the Marlins. The right-hander has had a rough year, posting a 5.47 ERA and an even worse 6.98 FIP, suggesting he’s been fortunate to keep his ERA from ballooning further. Munoz has started 9 games this season, holding a 1-4 record. His projections for today’s game are bleak, with an expected 4.9 innings pitched and 3.1 earned runs allowed. The Marlins’ offense, ranked 29th overall, will need to step up considerably to support Munoz.

On the other side, the Mets, sitting at 49-47, are having an average season. Luis Severino, who has a 6-3 record and a solid 3.78 ERA, will start for New York. However, his 4.43 xFIP indicates he might not be as reliable as his ERA suggests. Severino’s projections for today include 5.7 innings pitched and 2.9 earned runs allowed. The Mets’ offense, ranked 7th in the league, will look to capitalize on Munoz’s vulnerabilities, especially given their power-hitting prowess, ranking 5th in home runs.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Marlins a 45% chance of winning today, slightly better than the 40% implied by betting odds. Miami’s bullpen strength and yesterday’s win might make them an intriguing underdog bet. However, the Mets remain the favorites with a 55% projected win probability and a 60% implied by the market, thanks to their superior offense and a more reliable starting pitcher. Expect a high-scoring affair, with the game total set at 9.0 runs.

New York Mets Insights

• New York Mets – Moneyline (-165)
  Out of every team on the slate today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the New York Mets.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Pete Alonso – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  Pete Alonso has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.2-mph dropping to 81.1-mph over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Francisco Lindor – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Francisco Lindor pulls many of his flyballs (37.4% — 95th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 4th-deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+135)
  Roddery Munoz is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.7% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #23 HR venue among all stadiums in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.231) may lead us to conclude that Xavier Edwards has had positive variance on his side since the start of last season with his .316 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• The Miami Marlins have been the 2nd-unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in the future
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 48 of their last 80 games (+13.25 Units / 14% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 46 of their last 72 games (+15.50 Units / 18% ROI)
• Harrison Bader – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+900/-2700)
  Harrison Bader has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+16.50 Units / 412% ROI)