Mets vs Giants Head-to-Head Preview and Score Prediction – Friday April 3, 2026

New York Mets

@

San Francisco Giants

New York Mets Insights

• Nolan McLean – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)
  Nolan McLean has recorded 18 outs per GS since the start of last season, ranking in the 95th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Marcus Semien – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Marcus Semien has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .291 figure is considerably lower than his .320 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• The New York Mets have been the 2nd-luckiest offense in MLB since the start of last season, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress going forward
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+110)
  Tyler Mahle has been lucky since the start of last season, putting up a 2.28 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.16 — a 1.88 difference.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Luis Arraez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Since the start of last season, Luis Arraez’s 1.1% Barrel%, a reliable stat for measuring power, places him in the 2nd percentile among his peers.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• San Francisco Giants – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants’ bullpen ranks as the 3rd-worst among all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 19 games at home (+8.45 Units / 38% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-150/+115)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 60 of their last 107 games (+7.55 Units / 6% ROI)
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+105/-135)
  Juan Soto has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+9.10 Units / 36% ROI)