Mets vs Brewers Matchup Preview and Score Prediction – 8/08/2025

New York Mets

@

Milwaukee Brewers

On August 8, 2025, the Milwaukee Brewers will host the New York Mets at American Family Field for the first game of their series. Both teams are in the playoff hunt, with the Brewers holding a strong 70-44 record, while the Mets sit at 63-52. The Brewers are currently positioned well in the National League, thanks to their 10th-best offense in MLB and a top-tier bullpen ranked 8th. In contrast, the Mets’ offense ranks 13th overall, but their recent performance has been underwhelming, losing their last game 4-1 against the Brewers.

The matchup features two right-handed pitchers: Brandon Woodruff for the Brewers and Kodai Senga for the Mets. Woodruff has had a solid year, sporting a 3-0 record with an impressive 2.22 ERA, although his 2.94 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit fortunate so far. In his last start on August 2, he pitched 6 innings, allowing just 2 earned runs while striking out 8 batters. Meanwhile, Senga has also been effective, with a 7-3 record and a 2.31 ERA, but his 4.33 xFIP indicates potential regression. In his last outing, he struggled, allowing 4 earned runs over just 4 innings.

The Brewers’ offense excels in batting average, ranking 3rd in MLB, while the Mets’ lineup has struggled, sitting at 23rd in team batting average. This disparity could be pivotal, especially considering that Woodruff is a low-walk pitcher facing a Mets offense that has drawn the 6th most walks in the league. With the Brewers favored at -155 on the moneyline and an implied total of 4.39 runs, they appear to have the edge in this matchup, making them a compelling choice for bettors looking to capitalize on their strong season.

New York Mets Insights

• New York Mets – Moneyline (+125)
  Out of every team playing today, the 4th-weakest infield defense is that of the New York Mets.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Cedric Mullins is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Milwaukee (#2-best on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  The New York Mets bullpen ranks as the 7th-best in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Brandon Woodruff – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)
  Brandon Woodruff has averaged 17 outs per outing this year, placing in the 83rd percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Brice Turang – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Brice Turang is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• William Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  William Contreras hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-150)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 66 games (+25.95 Units / 29% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120/-110)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 48 away games (+11.70 Units / 20% ROI)
• Andrew Vaughn – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+150/-195)
  Andrew Vaughn has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+6.55 Units / 82% ROI)