Mets vs Brewers Game Analysis and Winning Probability – Saturday, August 09, 2025

New York Mets

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Milwaukee Brewers

As the Milwaukee Brewers host the New York Mets at American Family Field on August 9, 2025, both teams are looking to solidify their standings in the National League. The Brewers, sitting at a solid 71-44, are firmly in contention, while the Mets, at 63-53, find themselves in an above-average season but face an uphill battle to close the gap. This matchup marks the second game of the series, and the Brewers will be looking to build on their recent 3-2 victory over the Mets.

On the mound, Milwaukee will hand the ball to Tobias Myers, who has struggled to find his footing this season with a 4.30 ERA. While he currently ranks as the 235th best starting pitcher in MLB, the projections indicate a challenging outing ahead, as he is expected to pitch just 4.8 innings and allow an estimated 3.0 earned runs. In contrast, New York’s Frankie Montas enters the game with a troubling 6.68 ERA. Despite being classified among the worst pitchers in MLB, his projections suggest he may see improvement, as he allowed 7 earned runs in his last start but has an xFIP of 4.33, indicating he’s been somewhat unlucky.

Offensively, the Brewers have boasted the 10th best offense in MLB, highlighted by their 3rd best team batting average. Meanwhile, the Mets rank 13th overall but struggle with a 23rd ranking in team batting average, which could hinder their performance against a solid Brewers lineup.

With the Brewers at -120 on the moneyline, betting markets view this as a close matchup. However, Milwaukee’s strong lineup and home-field advantage could play a critical role, especially against a Mets offense that has been less consistent. All eyes will be on how Myers’ performance stacks up against Montas as both teams vie for a crucial win in this pivotal series.

New York Mets Insights

• Frankie Montas – Over/Under Strikeouts
  Frankie Montas’s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this season (55.1% compared to 47.7% last season) ought to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Pete Alonso – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Pete Alonso has made sizeable strides with his Barrel%, bettering his 13.2% rate last year to 20.1% this year.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets’ bullpen projects as the 9th-best out of all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Tobias Myers – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Tobias Myers’s fastball velocity has decreased 1 mph this year (92 mph) below where it was last year (93 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Joseph Ortiz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  There has been a decrease in Joey Ortiz’s average exit velocity this year, from 87.8 mph last year to 85.5 mph now
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• William Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  William Contreras hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-120)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 71 of their last 112 games (+26.60 Units / 18% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 43 of their last 74 games (+8.25 Units / 9% ROI)
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+130/-170)
  Juan Soto has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.70 Units / 51% ROI)