Mets vs Brewers Game Analysis and Winning Probability – Saturday, August 09, 2025

New York Mets

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Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers host the New York Mets on August 9, 2025, in a matchup that could impact their playoff positioning. Currently, the Brewers hold a strong position in the National League with a record of 71-44, while the Mets sit at 63-53. Following their previous clash, where the Brewers edged out the Mets 3-2, this series is proving to be competitive.

The Brewers’ offense has been solid, ranking 12th in MLB and boasting the 3rd best team batting average this season. They have excelled in getting on base, with their best hitter recently jumping into a hot streak, posting a remarkable .455 batting average and a 1.344 OPS over the last week. In contrast, the Mets have been struggling offensively, ranking 23rd in team batting average and 13th overall, making their task more challenging against a solid Brewers pitching staff.

On the mound, Milwaukee is projected to send Tobias Myers, who, despite being ranked 235th among starters, holds an average ERA of 4.30 this season. However, advanced projections suggest he might be due for regression, indicating that he could struggle more than his stats reveal. On the other side, Reed Garrett, while expected to pitch only 1.1 innings, has shown potential with a below-average projection for earned runs (0.6).

With the Brewers currently favored, their implied team total of 4.66 runs reflects confidence in their ability to capitalize on the Mets’ weaknesses. Given the recent performance of the Brewers and their offense’s strength, they could find success in continuing their winning ways against the Mets today.

New York Mets Insights

• New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)
  Frankie Montas’s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this season (55.1% compared to 47.7% last season) ought to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Starling Marte – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Starling Marte has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 7.2% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the last two weeks.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets’ bullpen projects as the 5th-best out of all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Tobias Myers – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Tobias Myers’s fastball velocity has decreased 1 mph this year (92 mph) below where it was last year (93 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Andrew Vaughn – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Andrew Vaughn has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.8-mph to 94.7-mph over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• William Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  William Contreras hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-120)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 71 of their last 112 games (+26.60 Units / 18% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 43 of their last 74 games (+8.25 Units / 9% ROI)
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+305/-440)
  Juan Soto has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 away games (+9.30 Units / 103% ROI)