Match Preview: Reds vs Pirates Game Forecast – Thursday, August 22, 2024

Cincinnati Reds

@

Pittsburgh Pirates

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to face off against the Cincinnati Reds on August 22, 2024, at PNC Park, both teams find themselves in the midst of a disappointing season. The Pirates, sitting at 59-67, have struggled offensively, ranking as the 27th best offense in MLB. Meanwhile, the Reds, at 62-65, have been slightly better but still fall within the average range. This matchup marks the first game of the series, adding an extra layer of intensity as both teams look to gain momentum.

In their most recent outings, the Pirates last faced the Reds, while the Reds played against another opponent. The Pirates have found some recent success, with Jared Triolo emerging as their best hitter over the last week, showcasing a solid .1.137 OPS with two home runs and five RBIs. This performance could be crucial as the Pirates’ offense has struggled to find consistency throughout the season.

On the mound, the Pirates will send out Paul Skenes, who boasts an impressive 7-2 record and an excellent 2.30 ERA, ranking him as the 3rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. Skenes has an elite strikeout rate of 31.8%, which plays well against the Reds’ high-strikeout offense, ranked 5th most in MLB. This presents a favorable matchup for Skenes, who projects to allow just 1.9 earned runs today.

Opposing him will be Nick Lodolo, who has put together a solid season with a 9-5 record and a 4.55 ERA. However, he ranks only 74th among MLB starters, indicating that he may be vulnerable against a potent Pirates lineup. The projections suggest that the Pirates could capitalize on Lodolo’s weaknesses, especially considering their status as betting favorites with a moneyline of -150.

With the game total set at a low 7.5 runs, both teams will need to capitalize on their opportunities to find success. As the Pirates aim to build on Triolo’s recent performance and Skenes’ elite pitching, they could very well turn the tide in this matchup.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Nick Lodolo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Over his previous 3 GS, Nick Lodolo has experienced a big drop off in his fastball spin rate: from 2348 rpm over the entire season to 2251 rpm recently.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Elly De La Cruz has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.6-mph to 95.5-mph in the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Spencer Steer – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Spencer Steer pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.3% — 82nd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 9th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Paul Skenes – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-230/+175)
  Compared to average, Paul Skenes has been granted an above-average leash this year, recording an extra 5.2 adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Michael A. Taylor – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  As it relates to his home runs, Michael A. Taylor has suffered from bad luck this year. His 9.0 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been quite a bit lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 18.9.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Michael A. Taylor, Oneil Cruz, Joey Bart).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line -1.5 (+145)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 50 of their last 84 games (+15.55 Units / 14% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – Run Line +1.5 (-170)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 60 of their last 105 games (+9.40 Units / 7% ROI)
• Bryan De La Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+165/-220)
  Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+9.60 Units / 35% ROI)