Cincinnati Reds
Cleveland Guardians
(-110/-110)-110
On June 10, 2025, the Cleveland Guardians will host the Cincinnati Reds in an exciting interleague matchup at Progressive Field. This game comes on the heels of a 7-4 loss for the Guardians, while the Reds celebrated a victory with the same score. Both teams are closely matched, with the Guardians holding a record of 34-31 and the Reds at 34-33, placing them in the thick of a competitive season.
The Guardians are projected to start right-handed pitcher Slade Cecconi, who has struggled this year, with a 1-2 record and an ERA of 4.87. Although he pitched well in his last outing on June 5, going 5 innings with 2 earned runs, his overall performance has left much to be desired. With an advanced-stat Power Ranking placing him as the 194th best starting pitcher in MLB, Cecconi will need to elevate his game against a Reds lineup that ranks 10th in overall offensive capability.
On the other hand, Cincinnati will counter with left-handed pitcher Andrew Abbott, who has been solid this season with a 5-1 record and an outstanding ERA of 2.18. However, his last start did not go as planned, as he allowed 5 earned runs over 6 innings. The projections suggest that both pitchers may allow a similar number of earned runs today, but Abbott’s ability to limit damage gives the Reds an edge.
The Guardians’ offense has struggled this season, ranking 23rd in MLB, while the Reds boast a top-10 offense, making this matchup intriguing. With both teams looking to gain an advantage, this game could be pivotal as they aim to improve their standings. The current Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating expectations for a competitive contest.
Cincinnati Reds Insights
- Jake Fraley – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)Jake Fraley has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.6-mph dropping to 72.1-mph over the last week.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)Matt McLain hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 93rd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 8th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Cleveland Guardians Insights
- Slade Cecconi – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)Compared to league average, Slade Cecconi has been given less leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing an -10.8 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
- Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)Typically, batters like Jose Ramirez who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Andrew Abbott.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- The Cleveland Guardians have 4 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Nolan Jones, Johnathan Rodriguez, Bo Naylor, Gabriel Arias).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-110)The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 55 games (+5.75 Units / 9% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 33 games (+10.10 Units / 28% ROI)
- Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+145/-185)Matt McLain has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+10.15 Units / 36% ROI)