Match Preview: Reds vs Athletics Game Forecast and Analysis – Saturday, September 13, 2025

Cincinnati Reds

@

Athletics

As the Cincinnati Reds visit Sutter Health Park to take on the Oakland Athletics on September 13, 2025, both teams are looking to improve their records. The Reds sit at 74-73, currently battling for a Wild Card spot, while the Athletics, with a record of 68-80, are having a below-average season and lack playoff contention. In their last encounter, the Athletics fell short in a close match yesterday.

On the mound, the Athletics are set to start Luis Severino, who has had a tumultuous season with a 6-11 record and a 4.67 ERA. Though his ERA indicates average performance, his FIP of 4.10 shows he may have been unlucky, suggesting potential for improvement. However, he projects to pitch just 5.4 innings, allowing an alarming 3.0 earned runs and a high average of 5.5 hits.

In contrast, Hunter Greene takes the hill for the Reds, boasting an impressive 2.59 ERA and a 6-4 record. Greene has performed excellently in his 16 starts this season, striking out 6.9 batters on average and pitching an average of 5.5 innings. This match-up could favor the Reds, particularly as Greene faces an Athletics offense that, despite ranking as the 7th best in MLB, may struggle against a high-flyball pitcher like Greene.

With the Athletics projected to score 4.64 runs and the Reds at 4.86, the odds lean slightly toward the Reds, but with such a close moneyline at -120 for Cincinnati and +100 for Oakland, this game is expected to stay competitive. Overall, the projections suggest that Oakland’s power-hitting capabilities against Greene’s flyball tendency could lead to some fireworks at the plate.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Hunter Greene – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-145/+115)
  Hunter Greene has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 5.1 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Matt McLain is projected to bat 9th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 57% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Matt McLain hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 95th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 11th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Athletics Insights

• Luis Severino – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Luis Severino has utilized his secondary offerings 11.4% more often this season (51.1%) than he did last season (39.7%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• JJ Bleday – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  The Cincinnati Reds have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so JJ Bleday stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• It may be smart to expect weaker performance for the Athletics offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 9th-luckiest offense in the game this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Athletics – Moneyline (+100)
  The Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 65 games (+10.35 Units / 15% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 79 of their last 133 games (+26.30 Units / 18% ROI)
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+110/-140)
  Brent Rooker has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.10 Units / 31% ROI)