Match Preview: Pirates vs D-Backs Game Forecast – Monday, May 26, 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Arizona Diamondbacks

On May 26, 2025, the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Chase Field in what marks the first game of their series. While the Diamondbacks hold a record of 26-27, indicating an average season thus far, the Pirates are struggling significantly at 19-35, positioning them as one of the worst teams in baseball this year.

In their previous outing, the Diamondbacks experienced a setback, falling short against the Cincinnati Reds. The Pirates, however, are looking to shake off their current woes against a Diamondbacks team that ranks 4th in MLB in offensive performance. With a potent lineup that is 6th in batting average and 5th in home runs, the Diamondbacks are expected to capitalize on their strengths against a struggling Pirates pitching staff.

For this matchup, Arizona’s Ryne Nelson is set to take the mound, bringing a mix of potential and challenges to the game. Nelson’s Win/Loss record stands at 1-1 this season, with an ERA of 4.60, suggesting he has been average but unlucky based on his xFIP of 3.51. He may only pitch about 4.8 innings, projecting to allow 2.5 earned runs while striking out 4.2 batters. In contrast, Pittsburgh’s Andrew Heaney, although sporting a strong ERA of 2.91, has faced criticism for his inconsistency, reflected in his high xFIP of 4.34, indicating he could be due for negative regression.

As the Diamondbacks aim to leverage their offensive firepower against a struggling Pirates team, they are favored in betting lines with an implied team total of 5.14 runs for today’s matchup. Meanwhile, the Pirates are projected for only 3.86 runs, marking a stark contrast in offensive expectations. With the Diamondbacks’ recent struggles juxtaposed against their higher-ranking offense, this game presents a critical opportunity for Arizona to put distance between themselves and Pittsburgh in the standings.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Andrew Heaney – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Andrew Heaney’s fastball velocity has dropped 2.1 mph this season (89.4 mph) below where it was last year (91.5 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Adam Frazier – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Adam Frazier has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Andrew McCutchen – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Andrew McCutchen hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 94th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 3rd-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-190)
  Ryne Nelson is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.9% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #29 HR venue among all major league parks in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
  Extreme groundball bats like Eugenio Suarez tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Andrew Heaney.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• It may be best to expect worse results for the Arizona Diamondbacks offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 3rd-luckiest offense in the game this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-130)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 44 games (+9.25 Units / 18% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 24 away games (+11.35 Units / 40% ROI)
• Corbin Carroll – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Corbin Carroll has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+6.70 Units / 14% ROI)