Match Preview: Nationals vs Cubs Game Forecast and Analysis - Sunday, March 29, 2026

+210O/U: 9.5
(-110/-110)-245

Jake Irvin – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Jake Irvin has utilized his fastball a lot since the start of last season, though: 54% of the time, grading out in the 100th percentile.
Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
Keibert Ruiz – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+235/-325)
Keibert Ruiz’s 2.2% Barrel% (an advanced metric to measure power) grades out in the 5th percentile since the start of last season.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
The Washington Nationals bullpen profiles as the 8th-worst in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-245)
The Chicago Cubs infield defense grades out as the best among every team on the slate today.
Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
Michael Busch – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+180/-235)
Michael Busch’s speed has fallen off this year. His 26.5 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 25.9 ft/sec now.
Explain: Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can’t beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.
Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
Pete Crow-Armstrong pulls many of his flyballs (39.9% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 5th-deepest RF fences today.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-230)
The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 47 of their last 79 games at home (+20.80 Units / 16% ROI)
Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 57 away games (+10.45 Units / 16% ROI)
Nico Hoerner – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
Nico Hoerner has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+7.55 Units / 28% ROI)

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