Match Preview: Mets vs Angels Game Forecast and Analysis – Friday, August 2, 2024

New York Mets

@

Los Angeles Angels

As the Los Angeles Angels prepare to host the New York Mets on August 2, 2024, both teams are looking to rebound from disappointing recent outings. The Angels, currently sitting at 47-62, have had a tough season, while the Mets, with a record of 57-51, are faring better but are not without their own struggles.

In their last game, the Angels fell to the Colorado Rockies by a narrow margin of 5-4, extending their struggles. Meanwhile, the Mets were bested by the Minnesota Twins, losing 8-3. Both teams are looking to turn the tide in this interleague matchup, which is the first of the series.

Tyler Anderson will take the mound for the Angels. Despite his 2.96 ERA, which is excellent, his 4.75 xFIP suggests he may have been fortunate this season. Anderson’s recent performance included a solid outing where he pitched 7 innings, allowing 3 earned runs and striking out 10 batters, but he also projects to allow 3.3 earned runs today, which is concerning given the Mets’ powerful offense.

Paul Blackburn, the Mets’ starter, has struggled this season with a 4.41 ERA. Although he has a decent win-loss record of 4-2, his performance has been inconsistent, and he projects to allow 2.9 earned runs today.

The Mets boast the 8th best offense in MLB, highlighted by Francisco Lindor, who has been a key player with 22 home runs and a .798 OPS. Conversely, the Angels rank 24th in offense, struggling to find their rhythm at the plate.

The projections favor the Mets, who are expected to score 5.47 runs on average, compared to the Angels’ 4.95 runs. With a Game Total of 9.0 runs, bettors might find value in the Mets, especially given their recent strong performances against weaker opponents.

New York Mets Insights

• Paul Blackburn – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-170/+135)
  Paul Blackburn’s higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this year (66.7% compared to 61.4% last year) figures to work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Jose Iglesias – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Extreme flyball bats like Jose Iglesias tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Tyler Anderson.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Brandon Nimmo has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.1%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 10th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Tyler Anderson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Among all SPs, Tyler Anderson’s fastball velocity of 88.6 mph is in the 1st percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Luis Rengifo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  This season, Luis Rengifo’s Barrel% has decreased significantly, dropping from 7.7% last year to just 2.5% this year.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• It may be smart to expect improved performance for the Los Angeles Angels offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 5th-unluckiest offense in the game this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-145)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 59 of their last 105 games (+9.70 Units / 8% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 59 of their last 98 games (+12.80 Units / 11% ROI)
• Nolan Schanuel – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+850/-2200)
  Nolan Schanuel has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 47 games (+20.00 Units / 43% ROI)