Match Preview: D-Backs vs Blue Jays Game Forecast and Analysis – Wednesday, June 18, 2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays will host the Arizona Diamondbacks in a critical mid-season interleague matchup at Rogers Centre on June 18, 2025. After a tightly contested game yesterday, where the Blue Jays edged out the Diamondbacks 5-4, both teams will look to gain momentum heading into this second game of the series. The Blue Jays currently sit at 39-33, showcasing an above-average season, while the Diamondbacks stand at a balanced 36-36.

On the mound, the Blue Jays are set to start Eric Lauer, who has had an interesting year. Despite ranking as the 303rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics, Lauer has managed a solid ERA of 2.37. However, projections suggest he may be due for regression, as his xFIP of 4.41 indicates he might not sustain this level of performance. Lauer’s tendency to give up fly balls could be a concern against a powerful Diamondbacks offense, which ranks 3rd in MLB with 102 home runs this season.

Eduardo Rodriguez will take the hill for the Diamondbacks. Although his ERA is a troubling 6.27, the projections suggest he could be in for a turnaround, as evidenced by his xFIP of 3.96. Rodriguez pitched well in his last start, going 6 innings with just 2 earned runs, and he could be poised to build on that performance.

Offensively, the Blue Jays rank 14th in MLB, with a strong batting average of .263, while the Diamondbacks boast the 3rd best offense, highlighted by their power-hitting capabilities. With both teams evenly matched in terms of moneyline odds at -110, this game promises to be a close contest, making it an intriguing choice for bettors. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating a balanced expectation for scoring.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
  Eduardo Rodriguez is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.4% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #3 HR venue in the league today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Eugenio Suarez has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 100.5-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 91-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Arizona’s 89.8-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the best in Major League Baseball: #7 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Eric Lauer – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Eric Lauer has a reverse platoon split and should be helped facing 7 opposite-handed bats in this game.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Davis Schneider – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Arizona’s #2-ranked outfield defense of the day poses a formidable challenge for Davis Schneider, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 85th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 44 games (+12.40 Units / 25% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 36 games (+11.55 Units / 21% ROI)
• Lourdes Gurriel Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-120/-110)
  Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+7.30 Units / 23% ROI)