Match Preview: D-Backs vs Blue Jays Game Forecast and Analysis – Wednesday, June 18, 2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Toronto Blue Jays

As the Toronto Blue Jays and Arizona Diamondbacks clash on June 18, 2025, this interleague matchup takes on added significance. The Blue Jays currently hold a record of 39-33, showcasing an above-average season, while the Diamondbacks sit at 36-36, marking an average campaign. Both teams are vying for crucial wins as they aim to solidify their positions in a competitive landscape.

In their previous encounter, the Blue Jays fell to the Diamondbacks, and they’ll be eager for redemption. Toronto will send Eric Lauer to the mound, who has had an interesting year. Although he boasts an impressive ERA of 2.37, his xFIP of 4.41 suggests he has been a bit fortunate, and his projections indicate a struggle ahead, as he is expected to pitch only 4.6 innings while allowing 2.7 earned runs. Lauer’s tendency to give up fly balls could be problematic against a powerful Arizona lineup that ranks 3rd in the league with 102 home runs.

On the other side, Eduardo Rodriguez, projected to start for the Diamondbacks, has had a turbulent season with a 6.27 ERA, but his xFIP of 3.96 suggests he may be due for a turnaround. Rodriguez’s ability to pitch 5.6 innings while allowing an average of 2.9 earned runs could be crucial for Arizona as they look to capitalize on Lauer’s vulnerabilities.

Offensively, the Blue Jays rank 14th overall, with a solid batting average of .270, while the Diamondbacks boast the 3rd best offense in the league, highlighted by a potent home run capability. With both teams projected for a total of 4.50 runs, this game promises to be competitive, making it a must-watch for fans and bettors alike.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
  Eduardo Rodriguez is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.4% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #3 HR venue in the league today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Corbin Carroll – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Corbin Carroll has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 92.4-mph average to last season’s 89.2-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks’ bullpen projects as the 10th-worst out of all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Eric Lauer – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Eric Lauer has a reverse platoon split and should be helped facing 7 opposite-handed bats in this game.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Davis Schneider – Over/Under Total Bases
  Typically, batters like Davis Schneider who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Eduardo Rodriguez.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 85th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 44 games (+12.40 Units / 25% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 36 games (+11.55 Units / 21% ROI)
• Ketel Marte – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Ketel Marte has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.55 Units / 49% ROI)