Match Preview: Cardinals vs Padres Game Forecast – Sunday, August 3, 2025

St. Louis Cardinals

@

San Diego Padres

On August 3, 2025, the San Diego Padres will host the St. Louis Cardinals in the third game of their series at Petco Park. After securing a win against the Cardinals in the previous game, the Padres look to build on their above-average 61-50 record, positioning themselves solidly in the standings. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are at an even 56-56 and struggling to find consistent momentum.

Dylan Cease is projected to take the mound for the Padres. Although Cease holds a good position in advanced-stat Power Rankings as the 28th best starting pitcher, his 3-10 record and ERA of 4.79 indicate a season marred by bad luck. He projects to pitch 5.6 innings while allowing 2.3 earned runs, and his high strikeout rate (29.9%) could be challenged by the Cardinals’ low-strikeout offense, which ranks 4th least in MLB.

For the Cardinals, Andre Pallante will start. Pallante has a 6-7 record this season and an ERA of 4.62, considered average. His low strikeout percentage (15.3%) coupled with the Padres’ strong contact skills could present a challenge, especially since he’s projected to yield 2.8 earned runs over 5.5 innings.

The Padres’ offense ranks 23rd in MLB, and they struggle with power, sitting 29th in home runs. Conversely, the Cardinals also have a weak offense, ranking 18th overall and 23rd in home runs. Combined with the Padres’ elite bullpen ranking 1st in MLB, San Diego appears poised to capitalize on their home-field advantage behind Cease, who could outperform his season stats in this matchup. The Game Total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating a potentially close contest, but with the Padres as strong favorites, their high implied team total of 4.54 runs suggests they might break out offensively today.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (+155)
  The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense grades out as the worst out of every team on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Willson Contreras – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Willson Contreras has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 95.3-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 90.5-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Lars Nootbaar hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (41.3% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Dylan Cease – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-135/+105)
  Compared to average, Dylan Cease has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an extra 4.0 adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Ramon Laureano – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Ramon Laureano’s true offensive talent to be a .324, providing some evidence that he has experienced some positive variance this year given the .048 disparity between that mark and his actual .372 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the San Diego Padres with a 18.6% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 53 of their last 91 games (+13.80 Units / 14% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 32 away games (+9.15 Units / 24% ROI)
• Dylan Cease – Over/Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (+110/-140)
  Dylan Cease has hit the Hits Allowed Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.00 Units / 32% ROI)