Match Preview: Athletics vs Cubs Game Forecast – Monday, September 16, 2024

Oakland Athletics

@

Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to host the Oakland Athletics on September 16, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions. The Cubs, with a record of 76-73, are in the midst of an average season, while the Athletics sit at 65-85, struggling significantly this year. This matchup marks the first game of their series, and the Cubs will look to build on their recent success, having won against the Colorado Rockies 6-2 the previous day.

Starting for the Cubs is Shota Imanaga, who has been solid this season with a 13-3 record and a commendable ERA of 3.03, ranking him as the 76th best starting pitcher in MLB. However, his xFIP of 3.73 indicates he may have been somewhat fortunate, suggesting potential regression. Imanaga’s ability to pitch 5.7 innings on average while allowing only 2.3 earned runs bodes well for the Cubs, especially against an Athletics lineup that, despite ranking 5th in home runs, has been inconsistent.

On the other side, Joey Estes takes the mound for Oakland. With a record of 7-7 and an average ERA of 4.36, Estes is viewed as one of the less effective pitchers in the league. His projections show he will likely pitch 4.9 innings while allowing around 2.5 earned runs, but his low walk rate could hinder the Cubs’ ability to leverage their patience at the plate, as they rank 6th in walks this season.

The projections favor the Cubs, suggesting they will score around 4.35 runs, while the Athletics are projected for a mere 3.82 runs. With the Cubs having a high implied team total of 4.64 runs, they enter this game as significant favorites, making it an opportunity for bettors to consider the value in the Cubs’ chances to secure a win.

Oakland Athletics Insights

• Joey Estes – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Joey Estes’s high utilization percentage of his fastball (54.2% this year) is likely hurting his results, consider they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Tyler Nevin – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Tyler Nevin has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (60% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Oakland Athletics – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Oakland Athletics’ bullpen ranks as the 10th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Shota Imanaga – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Among all SPs, Shota Imanaga’s fastball spin rate of 2442 rpm ranks in the 87th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Dansby Swanson has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.1-mph dropping to 77.7-mph over the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Isaac Paredes pulls many of his flyballs (46.6% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 7th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 53 games at home (+13.35 Units / 22% ROI)
• Oakland Athletics – Moneyline (+175)
  The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 69 games (+10.25 Units / 14% ROI)
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+120/-150)
  Brent Rooker has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 24 away games (+11.45 Units / 45% ROI)