Match Preview: Athletics vs Brewers Game Forecast – Saturday, April 19, 2025

Athletics

@

Milwaukee Brewers

As the Milwaukee Brewers host the Oakland Athletics on April 19, 2025, both teams will be looking to gain momentum in this interleague matchup. The Brewers currently hold a record of 11-9 and are having a solid season, while the Athletics sit at 9-11, struggling to find their footing. In their previous game, the Athletics managed to edge out the Brewers, but both teams are still in search of consistency.

On the mound, the Brewers are projected to start Chad Patrick, who has had an impressive start to the season with a 1-0 record and an excellent ERA of 1.76. However, advanced metrics suggest that he may have been a bit fortunate, as his xFIP of 5.13 indicates potential regression. Patrick’s high flyball rate (48%) could be a concern against a powerful Athletics lineup that ranks 5th in MLB with 27 home runs this season.

Luis Severino, starting for the Athletics, has struggled with a 0-3 record and an ERA of 4.01. His projections also suggest he has been lucky, with a 5.13 xERA that could mean trouble against a Brewers offense that, despite ranking 18th overall, has shown flashes of power, ranking 12th in home runs.

The Brewers’ bullpen ranks 11th, which is slightly better than the Athletics’ 18th rank, giving Milwaukee an edge in late-game situations. Betting markets reflect this with the Brewers set at -135 on the moneyline, implying a strong chance for them to secure a win. With the game total set at 8.5 runs, bettors might find value in backing the Brewers, especially considering their strong offensive performances lately and the potential for Chad Patrick to outpitch Severino.

Athletics Insights

• Athletics – Moneyline (+110)
  Among every team today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense is that of the the Athletics.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Brent Rooker has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 100-mph average to last year’s 96.7-mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Brent Rooker hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 8th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Chad Patrick – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
  Given that flyball hitters perform worse against flyball pitchers, Chad Patrick (38.7% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in today’s game with 2 FB hitters in the opposition’s projected lineup.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Typically, bats like Christian Yelich who hit a lot of groundballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Luis Severino.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Milwaukee Brewers (20.8 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 5th-least strikeout-heavy set of hitters on the slate.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-130)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 94 of their last 168 games (+6.50 Units / 3% ROI)
• Athletics – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Athletics have hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.40 Units / 15% ROI)
• Tyler Soderstrom – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+175/-235)
  Tyler Soderstrom has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+9.15 Units / 131% ROI)