Marlins vs Rockies Bets and Betting Trends – 9/17/25

Miami Marlins

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Colorado Rockies

On September 17, 2025, the Colorado Rockies will host the Miami Marlins at Coors Field for the second game of their series. After losing to the Marlins in their previous matchup, the Rockies are looking to bounce back, although they are mired in a dreadful season with a 41-110 record. On the other hand, the Marlins’ 71-80 mark indicates they are struggling to find consistency but still have room for improvement.

The starting pitchers provide a compelling contrast. McCade Brown, projected to start for Colorado, has had a rough year, with an 0-4 record and a ghastly ERA of 9.88. While his xFIP of 6.78 suggests he might have been unlucky, his projections indicate he will struggle, expected to pitch only 4.5 innings and allow 2.8 earned runs. His low strikeout rate of 13.7% could be a disadvantage against a Marlins offense that ranks as the 4th least in strikeouts.

In contrast, Miami’s Ryan Weathers, who has a solid 2.73 ERA and a 2-1 record, is projected to perform well, despite a below-average strikeout projection of 4.5. The Rockies’ offense, ranked 27th in MLB, has not provided much support, and their batting average ranks 25th. Given this context, the Marlins’ offense, which holds a mid-tier ranking at 19th, may find success against a struggling Rockies staff.

With a high game total of 10.5 runs, the Rockies enter as underdogs with a moneyline of +135, while the Marlins are favored at -155. The projections hint at a higher expected total for the Marlins, suggesting they could capitalize on the Rockies’ vulnerabilities.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Ryan Weathers – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Ryan Weathers has gone to his four-seamer 5.9% more often this year (45.6%) than he did last year (39.7%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Troy Johnston – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Troy Johnston has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (-155)
  The Miami Marlins projected offense grades out as the 2nd-weakest of the day in terms of overall hitting skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• McCade Brown – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  McCade Brown struggled when it came to striking hitters out in his last outing and posted 2 Ks.
  Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• Hunter Goodman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.292) implies that Hunter Goodman has had positive variance on his side this year with his .360 actual wOBA.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Colorado Rockies – 2H Moneyline
  The Colorado Rockies bullpen ranks as the 7th-worst in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-145)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 87 of their last 148 games (+18.95 Units / 10% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (-155)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 42 away games (+15.00 Units / 34% ROI)
• Agustin Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Agustin Ramirez has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.10 Units / 25% ROI)