Miami Marlins
Atlanta Braves
(-110/-110)-110
The Atlanta Braves will host the Miami Marlins on August 7, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing matchup despite both teams’ struggles this season. The Braves (47-66) find themselves well off the pace, while the Marlins (56-57) are hovering around .500 but not threatening for a playoff spot. The Braves are expected to start Carlos Carrasco, who has had a difficult season, currently ranking as the 305th best starting pitcher in MLB. He has a Win/Loss record of 2-2, an ERA of 5.68, and is projected to allow 2.8 earned runs over about 5.0 innings. Carrasco has also been somewhat unlucky this year, as indicated by his lower xFIP of 4.61.
On the other side, the Marlins will counter with Eury Perez, who has been significantly better. Perez ranks 45th among all starting pitchers, holding a 4-3 record with an impressive ERA of 2.70. However, projections suggest he might face some regression, as his xFIP of 4.19 indicates a bit of luck this season. He is expected to pitch around 4.9 innings and allow approximately 2.3 earned runs.
Offensively, the Braves rank 19th in overall talent this season, with a particularly poor showing in batting average, where they sit at 23rd. Meanwhile, the Marlins rank 20th overall, but their 11th ranking in batting average suggests they have the potential to score runs more effectively.
With the Braves’ bullpen ranking as the 8th best in MLB, they may have an edge in late-game situations. The projections favor the Braves to score around 4.35 runs, slightly higher than the Marlins’ 4.15. Given these factors, it seems the Braves, despite their struggles, might be poised to outperform expectations in this matchup.
Miami Marlins Insights
- Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-150)Eury Perez is an extreme flyball pitcher (42.8% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #24 HR venue among all parks in today’s game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Liam Hicks – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)Liam Hicks has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (81% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this game.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Heriberto Hernandez – Over/Under Total BasesHeriberto Hernandez pulls many of his flyballs (33.6% — 80th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 2nd-deepest LF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Atlanta Braves Insights
- Carlos Carrasco – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)Carlos Carrasco’s change-up usage has dropped by 5.9% from last year to this one (23.3% to 17.4%) .Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
- Nick Allen – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+210/-280)Nick Allen’s average exit velocity has decreased of late; his 83.9-mph seasonal figure has fallen off to 77.6-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- The Atlanta Braves (21.7 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the least strikeout-prone batting order on the slate today.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.