Seattle Mariners
Minnesota Twins
(-110/-110)+110
The Minnesota Twins will host the Seattle Mariners in a pivotal showdown at Target Field on June 23, 2025. Both teams find themselves in competitive situations, with the Twins currently positioned at 4th in the American League Central with a record of 37-40, while the Mariners, standing 2nd in the AL West, are slightly ahead at 39-37. The Twins lost their last game against the Mariners by a narrow 9-8 margin, while the Mariners recently enjoyed a decisive 14-6 victory, showcasing their offensive prowess.
In this matchup, the Twins will rely on right-handed pitcher Bailey Ober, who has had an uneven season so far with a 4-4 record and a 4.54 ERA. In his last outing on June 18, he pitched 6 innings, allowing 4 earned runs which was considered an uneventful performance. Ober projects to allow an average of 2.9 earned runs today, which is below average, but his significant issue has been allowing 5.3 hits per game, indicating potential vulnerability.
On the other side, the Mariners counter with Bryan Woo, who has been a standout performer with a 6-4 record and an impressive 3.12 ERA. His last start on June 17 was quite remarkable as he tossed 7 scoreless innings, allowing just 1 hit and striking out 6 batters. Woo’s projections suggest he’ll allow around 2.6 earned runs in this game, illustrating a clear edge in expected performance over Ober.
Offensively, the Mariners boast the 8th best lineup in the league, underscoring their ability to hit for both average and power, ranking 7th in home runs. In contrast, the Twins struggle at 21st in batting average and 16th in overall team rankings, which adds to the uphill battle they face. Despite their home-field advantage and a strong bullpen ranked 2nd in MLB, the Twins will need significant contributions from their lineup to match the Mariners’ offensive firepower. With an average Game Total of 8.5 runs and betting markets favoring Seattle, the stakes are high for both teams as they look to establish momentum for the series.
Seattle Mariners Insights
- Seattle Mariners – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-155)Bryan Woo is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.6% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #22 HR venue among all parks in this matchup.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Luke Raley – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+135)Luke Raley has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (77% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in today’s game.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Luke Raley – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)Luke Raley hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 81st percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 10th-deepest CF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Minnesota Twins Insights
- Bailey Ober – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)Bailey Ober’s slider rate has increased by 14.2% from last year to this one (11.9% to 26.1%) .Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Trevor Larnach – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)Trevor Larnach has a good chance to have an advantage against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners only has 1 same-handed RP.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- The Minnesota Twins have done a strong job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-hit balls. Their 15.5° mark is among the highest in the majors this year (#7 overall).Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 67 games (+6.25 Units / 8% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 72 games (+8.05 Units / 10% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Jorge Polanco has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.80 Units / 26% ROI)