Mariners vs Red Sox Picks and Betting Odds – 7/31/2024

Seattle Mariners

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Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox and Seattle Mariners are set to clash on July 31, 2024, at Fenway Park in what promises to be a compelling American League matchup. Both teams are having above-average seasons, with the Red Sox holding a 56-49 record and the Mariners at 56-52. This game is the third in a series between these two, adding some extra intrigue as each team looks to gain an edge.

The Red Sox boast one of the league’s more potent offenses, ranking 4th in team batting average, 7th in home runs, and 6th in stolen bases. Their offensive firepower has been a significant factor in their success this season. The Mariners, on the other hand, have struggled at the plate, ranking 30th in team batting average. However, they do have some pop, sitting at 14th in home runs and 11th in stolen bases.

On the mound, Boston will start Brayan Bello, a right-hander who has been steady this season. Bello’s ability to keep runners off the bases will be crucial against a Mariners lineup that has shown inconsistency. Seattle will counter with George Kirby, another right-hander, who has been reliable for them. Both pitchers will look to set the tone early in what could be a low-scoring affair.

Tyler O’Neill has been on fire for the Red Sox over the last week, recording a .333 batting average, 1.395 OPS, and four home runs in just five games. His recent performance could be a game-changer for Boston. Meanwhile, Randy Arozarena has been the standout for the Mariners, hitting .368 with a 1.132 OPS over the last week, including two stolen bases.

Given the Red Sox’s superior offensive metrics and Bello’s consistency on the mound, they appear to have the upper hand in this matchup. However, the Mariners’ ability to hit home runs and Kirby’s reliability could make this a closer game than expected. This game is crucial for both teams as they jockey for playoff positioning in the tightly contested American League.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• George Kirby – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  George Kirby’s 95.2-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 86th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Mitch Garver – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Mitch Garver has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (56% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Seattle Mariners have 6 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jorge Polanco, Mitch Garver, Jason Vosler, Dylan Moore, Cal Raleigh, Luke Raley).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Brayan Bello – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Given that flyball pitchers are hit hardest by groundball hitters, Brayan Bello (51.3% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged today with 5 GB hitters in Seattle’s projected offense.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Dominic Smith – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Dominic Smith has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The 9% Barrel% of the Boston Red Sox makes them the #8 club in Major League Baseball this year by this standard.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 49 games (+14.35 Units / 27% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 23 away games (+11.45 Units / 44% ROI)
• Josh Rojas – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-125/-105)
  Josh Rojas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 away games (+8.95 Units / 29% ROI)