Mariners vs Dodgers Betting Guide – 8/21/24

Seattle Mariners

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Los Angeles Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers are in a strong position as they face off against the Seattle Mariners on August 21, 2024, at Dodger Stadium. Currently sitting at 75-52, the Dodgers are having a stellar season and are well on their way to securing a playoff spot. In contrast, the Mariners, with a record of 64-63, find themselves in the middle of the pack and have struggled for consistency.

In their last encounter, the Dodgers triumphed over the Mariners with a score of 6-3, showcasing their powerful offense. The Dodgers rank 5th in MLB for offense, driven by the outstanding performance of Shohei Ohtani, who has delivered 39 home runs and a .991 OPS this season. Additionally, over the past week, Gavin Lux has been on fire, boasting a .400 batting average and 3 home runs, further solidifying Los Angeles’s offensive prowess.

On the mound, Jack Flaherty is projected to start for the Dodgers. While he has a solid 9-5 record with a 3.06 ERA, his recent outings have been somewhat uneventful. Nevertheless, he faces a Mariners lineup that ranks 1st in strikeouts, which should favor Flaherty’s high-strikeout ability (32.2 K% this year).

Logan Gilbert will take the mound for Seattle. Despite his impressive 2.96 ERA, his 7-9 record reflects some inconsistencies, especially against a high-powered Dodgers offense. Gilbert tends to limit walks but faces a challenging task against a patient Dodgers lineup that ranks 2nd in walks drawn.

According to the leading MLB projection system, the Dodgers are favored with a high implied team total of 4.54 runs, while the Mariners are projected to score around 3.46 runs. With the Dodgers’ strong recent form and the Mariners’ offensive struggles, Los Angeles appears poised to continue their winning ways.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Logan Gilbert – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-165/+130)
  Recording 19.3 outs per GS this year on average, Logan Gilbert falls in the 100th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Justin Turner – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Justin Turner is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 92% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)
  Today, Cal Raleigh is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 8th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 40.9% rate (99th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Jack Flaherty – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Jack Flaherty’s slider utilization has jumped by 6.3% from last season to this one (24.8% to 31.1%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Freddie Freeman is likely to have an edge against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-190)
  The best projected offense on the slate today in terms of overall batting skill is that of the Los Angeles Dodgers.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 59 games at home (+6.90 Units / 11% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 56 away games (+7.10 Units / 12% ROI)
• Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+460/-750)
  Jorge Polanco has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 13 away games (+9.30 Units / 72% ROI)