Mariners vs Athletics Matchup Preview and Score Prediction – 9/04/2024

Seattle Mariners

@

Oakland Athletics

As the Oakland Athletics prepare to host the Seattle Mariners on September 4, 2024, both teams find themselves in the midst of disappointing seasons. The Athletics sit at 60-78, while the Mariners hold a 69-69 record. In their last contest, the Mariners edged out the Athletics with a narrow victory, adding pressure on Oakland as they play the third game in this series.

Oakland is projected to start JP Sears, a left-handed pitcher with an 11-9 record and a 4.21 ERA. Despite his above-average earned run average, Sears is ranked 185th among MLB starters, highlighting his struggles. Compounding his woes, he projects to allow a staggering 4.8 hits and 1.7 walks on average today, positions that may leave him vulnerable to the Mariners’ lineup, which, despite ranking 28th in MLB, can capitalize on any mistakes.

Conversely, Seattle will counter with George Kirby, a right-handed pitcher boasting a solid 10-10 record and a 3.63 ERA, placing him 24th in the league rankings. Kirby’s projections showcase his effectiveness: he is expected to allow just 2.2 earned runs while striking out 6.1 batters on average today, making him a difficult challenge for an Athletics offense that ranks 20th overall.

Though both offenses struggle, the Athletics have shown an ability to hit for power, ranking 4th in home runs. JP Sears benefits from this power dynamic, as he faces a high-strikeout Mariners lineup, the most strikeout-prone in MLB, which bodes well for a pitcher looking to exploit that weakness.

With a Game Total of 7.5 runs and the Athletics given a low implied team total of 3.49 runs, betting lines suggest an underdog opportunity. The Athletics’ seeming volatility, brought on by Sears’ matchup against a strikeout-heavy lineup, may just tilt the scale in favor of Oakland tonight.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• George Kirby – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-205/+155)
  Generating 17.2 outs per GS this year on average, George Kirby places in the 78th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Mitch Garver – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Mitch Garver has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (50% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the lineup today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Julio Rodriguez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Julio Rodriguez ranks as the 19th-best hitter in baseball.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Oakland Athletics Insights

• JP Sears – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
  JP Sears has added a sinker to his pitch mix this year and has utilized it 10.5% of the time.
  Explain: Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, although sinkers are generally one of the least effective pitches.
• Tristan Gray – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Tristan Gray stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The Oakland Athletics have 5 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Max Schuemann, Shea Langeliers, Zack Gelof, Tristan Gray, Brent Rooker).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Oakland Athletics – Moneyline (+125)
  The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 53 games (+15.35 Units / 27% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 46 away games (+8.40 Units / 17% ROI)
• JJ Bleday – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+135)
  JJ Bleday has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 37 games (+9.70 Units / 14% ROI)